Minija v Babrungas

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Minija win at 41%.
2. 1′Much as we predicted: Minija was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–24–35
3. 1′KICK-OFF Minija v Babrungas
4. 40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Minija win 33%)
5. 45′HALF-TIME Minija 0–0 Babrungas
6. 46′SECOND HALF Minija 0–0 Babrungas
7. 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+2' Minija win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
8. 52′We said Minija at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–45–26
9. 55′We expected about 2.5 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 28–47–25
10. 58′A goal for Minija on 57′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 76–19–5
11. 58′⚽ GOAL · 57' Minija 1–0 Babrungas
12. 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Minija win: 41% at kick-off, 76% now
13. 58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Minija win is now our likeliest result at 76% (was Draw 19%)
14. 59′We published Minija at 41%. Our model now makes it 77%. 1–0 · 77–19–4
15. 66′We published Minija at 41%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
16. 68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Minija win: 41% at kick-off, 81% now
17. 69′Minija score on 68′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
18. 69′We published Minija at 41%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
19. 69′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 2–0 · 98–2–0
20. 69′⚽ GOAL · 68' Minija 2–0 Babrungas
21. 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Minija win: 41% at kick-off, 98% now
22. 72′Babrungas find the net on 72′. 2–1. 2–1 · 83–15–2
23. 72′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 83–15–2
24. 72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Minija 2–1 Babrungas
25. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Minija win: 41% at kick-off, 83% now
26. 74′We published Minija at 41%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–14–2
27. 77′A goal for Babrungas on 77′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 15–72–13
28. 77′We said Minija at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 15%. 2–2 · 15–72–13
29. 77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Minija 2–2 Babrungas
30. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Minija win: 41% at kick-off, 15% now
31. 77′THE CALL SWINGS · 77' Draw is now our likeliest result at 72% (was Minija win 15%)
32. 78′We said Minija at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 2–2 · 14–74–12
33. 78′4 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 14–74–12
34. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Minija win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
35. 83′We said Minija at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 2–2 · 9–83–8
36. 90′We said Minija at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 4–92–4
37. 90′Babrungas score on 90′ to make it 2–3. 2–3 · 0–4–96
38. 90′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 0–4–96
39. 90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Minija 2–3 Babrungas
40. 90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Minija win: 41% at kick-off, under 1% now
41. 90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Babrungas win is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Draw 4%)
42. FTFULL TIME Minija 2–3 Babrungas
43. FTMinija 2–3 Babrungas · Minija win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.