Kauno Žalgiris II v Transinvest 2 prediction · 1 Lyga

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 19:31

Kauno Žalgiris II 0–2 Transinvest 2 KAUNO ŽALGIRIS II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kauno Žalgiris II win~~46%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.698

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.865

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kauno Žalgiris II win at 46%.
1′KICK-OFF Kauno Žalgiris II v Transinvest 2
2′Little has changed for our model: Kauno Žalgiris II 46% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–23–32
45′HALF-TIME Kauno Žalgiris II 0–0 Transinvest 2
46′SECOND HALF Kauno Žalgiris II 0–0 Transinvest 2
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Kauno Žalgiris II win: 46% at kick-off, 36% now
54′We said Kauno Žalgiris II at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–39–27
54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Kauno Žalgiris II win 34%)
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.4 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 34–40–26
58′Transinvest 2 find the net on 57′. 0–1. 0–1 · 9–24–67
58′⚽ GOAL · 57' Kauno Žalgiris II 0–1 Transinvest 2
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Kauno Žalgiris II win: 46% at kick-off, 9% now
58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Transinvest 2 win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Draw 24%)
59′We said Kauno Žalgiris II at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–23–68
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Kauno Žalgiris II win: 46% at kick-off, 6% now
71′We said Kauno Žalgiris II at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–75
85′A goal for Transinvest 2 on 85′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–99
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Kauno Žalgiris II 0–2 Transinvest 2
FTFULL TIME Kauno Žalgiris II 0–2 Transinvest 2
FTKauno Žalgiris II 0–2 Transinvest 2 · Kauno Žalgiris II win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kauno Žalgiris II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kauno Žalgiris II 46%, draw 20%, Transinvest 2 33%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Kauno Žalgiris II v Transinvest 2Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Kauno Žalgiris II win46%

Draw20%

Transinvest 2 win33%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 27

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kauno Žalgiris II

Transinvest 2

7Days since last match6

Last match: 9 Oct · 1 Lyga

Last match: 10 Oct · 1 Lyga

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Kauno Žalgiris II	26	−20	23
14	Transinvest 2	26	−29	22

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kauno žalgiris ii winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

46% The market50%

Us46%

~~Market~~50%

We make Kauno Žalgiris II a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kauno Žalgiris II v Transinvest 2~~1.85 – 1.53

~~Form · last six in 1 Lyga this season · since 25 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 23 v 22~~13 v 14

~~The market · Kauno Žalgiris II win~~50% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Kauno Žalgiris II win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kauno Žalgiris II win	46%	50%	−4
Draw	20%	24%	−4
Transinvest 2 win	33%	26%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	65%	64%	+1
Both teams to score	64%	65%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	84%	83%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	44%	44%	0
Kauno Žalgiris II or draw	67%	74%	−7
Kauno Žalgiris II clean sheet	22%	–	–
Transinvest 2 clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.6%

0123450 2.6 6.4 4.1 2.1 1 7.5 8.5 7.2 3.7 2 5.9 8.6 6.5 3.3 3 3.6 5.3 4.0 2.1 4 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kauno Žalgiris II down, Transinvest 2 across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,344 1 Lyga matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1 Lyga matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.3% of games this season, across 206 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kauno Žalgiris II at home: 2.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Transinvest 2 away: 1.17 scored, 3.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.85 goals for Kauno Žalgiris II, 1.53 for Transinvest 2. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~TRA 0–1 KAU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1 Lyga this season · since 25 Aug

KAUNO ŽALGIRIS II

WLWWLD3–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 0–5 · 3–3

TRANSINVEST 2

LLLWLD3–4 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 4–1 · 1–2 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Minija	25	+55	67
2	Babrungas	26	+34	64
3	Be1 NFA	25	+18	51
4	Žalgiris II	26	+7	46
5	Neptūną Klaipėda	26	+2	44
6	Tauras	25	+12	43
7	BFA	26	+3	43
8	Dainava	26	+10	41
9	Atmosfera	25	+4	31
10	Jonava	26	−7	27
11	Garliava	26	−2	26
12	Hegelmann II	26	−25	25
13	Kauno Žalgiris II	26	−20	23
14	Transinvest 2	26	−29	22
15	FA Šiauliai II	26	−29	18
16	Ekranas	26	−33	15