Kauno Žalgiris II v Neptūną Klaipėda prediction · 1 Lyga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Kauno Žalgiris IIDrawNeptūną Klaipėda

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Neptūną Klaipėda 54%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Neptūną Klaipėda are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kauno Žalgiris II 25%, draw 21%, Neptūną Klaipėda 54%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Kauno Žalgiris II v Neptūną KlaipėdaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Kauno Žalgiris II win25%

Draw21%

Neptūną Klaipėda win54%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 29

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kauno Žalgiris II

Neptūną Klaipėda

14Days since last match6

Last match: 16 Oct · 1 Lyga

Last match: 24 Oct · 1 Lyga

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Neptūną Klaipėda	28	−2	44
14	Kauno Žalgiris II	27	−22	23

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · neptūną klaipėda winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · updated 25 Oct 00:20 · locked at kick-off

54% The market–

Us54%

We make Neptūną Klaipėda a 54% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.8, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kauno Žalgiris II v Neptūną Klaipėda~~1.09 – 1.75

~~Form · last six in 1 Lyga this season · since 4 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 23 v 44~~14 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Neptūną Klaipėda win

Published at 56%, 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kauno Žalgiris II win	25%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Neptūną Klaipėda win	54%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	54%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	32%	–	–
Kauno Žalgiris II or draw	46%	–	–
Kauno Žalgiris II clean sheet	18%	–	–
Neptūną Klaipėda clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 11.4%

0123450 5.0 11.4 8.9 5.2 2.3 1 7.6 9.8 9.4 5.5 2.5 2 3.5 5.9 5.1 3.0 3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kauno Žalgiris II down, Neptūną Klaipėda across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,357 1 Lyga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1 Lyga matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.9% of games this season, across 219 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.78 goals a meeting; 8 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kauno Žalgiris II at home: 2.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Neptūną Klaipėda away: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.09 goals for Kauno Žalgiris II, 1.75 for Neptūną Klaipėda. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.78

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 9

~~Both scored~~6 of 9

~~Last meetings~~NEP 2–1 KAU · NEP 3–1 KAU · KAU 1–3 NEP · KAU 2–2 NEP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1 Lyga this season · since 4 Sept

KAUNO ŽALGIRIS II

LWWLDL0–1 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 0–5 · 3–3 · 0–2

NEPTŪNĄ KLAIPĖDA

LWLLLL0–1 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 0–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Minija	27	+53	67
2	Babrungas	27	+35	67
3	Be1 NFA	27	+21	57
4	Žalgiris II	28	+8	49
5	BFA	28	+1	46
6	Dainava	27	+12	44
7	Tauras	27	+11	44
8	Neptūną Klaipėda	28	−2	44
9	Atmosfera	27	+8	37
10	Jonava	28	−7	30
11	Garliava	28	−3	29
12	Hegelmann II	27	−25	26
13	Transinvest 2	27	−27	25
14	Kauno Žalgiris II	27	−22	23
15	FA Šiauliai II	27	−30	18
16	Ekranas	28	−33	18