

Hegelmann II v Tauras
Hegelmann II
Tauras1 Lyga · FRI 16 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Tauras win at 62%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Tauras 62% before kick-off, 61% now. 0–0 · 18–21–61
- 1′KICK-OFF Hegelmann II v Tauras
- 6′A goal for Tauras on 6′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 6–12–82
- 6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Hegelmann II 0–1 Tauras
- 6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Tauras win: 62% at kick-off, 82% now
- 7′We said Tauras at 62% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 0–1 · 6–12–82
- 26′Hegelmann II score on 26′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 19–26–55
- 26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Hegelmann II 1–1 Tauras
- 26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Tauras win: 62% at kick-off, 55% now
- 31′Hegelmann II find the net on 30′. 2–1. 2–1 · 46–27–26
- 31′We said Tauras at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 26%. 2–1 · 46–27–26
- 31′⚽ GOAL · 30' Hegelmann II 2–1 Tauras
- 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Tauras win: 62% at kick-off, 26% now
- 31′THE CALL SWINGS · 31' Hegelmann II win is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Tauras win 26%)
- 33′GOAL DISALLOWED · 33' Hegelmann II
- 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Tauras win: 62% at kick-off, 53% now
- 33′THE CALL SWINGS · 33' Tauras win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Hegelmann II win 19%)
- 41′We said Tauras at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 50%. 1–1 · 18–32–50
- 42′We said Tauras at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 1–1 · 18–32–49
- 43′Hegelmann II find the net on 43′. 2–1. 2–1 · 51–28–21
- 43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Hegelmann II 2–1 Tauras
- 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Tauras win: 62% at kick-off, 21% now
- 43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Hegelmann II win is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Tauras win 21%)
- 44′We said Tauras at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 20%. 2–1 · 51–28–20
- 45′HALF-TIME Hegelmann II 2–1 Tauras
- 46′We said Tauras at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 2–1 · 52–28–19
- 46′SECOND HALF Hegelmann II 2–1 Tauras
- 51′A goal for Tauras on 51′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 18–37–45
- 51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Hegelmann II 2–2 Tauras
- 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Tauras win: 62% at kick-off, 45% now
- 51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Tauras win is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Hegelmann II win 18%)
- 52′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 18–38–45
- 53′We said Tauras at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 2–2 · 17–39–44
- 57′Tauras score on 57′ to make it 2–3. 2–3 · 3–14–83
- 57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Hegelmann II 2–3 Tauras
- 57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Tauras win: 62% at kick-off, 83% now
- 58′5 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 3–14–83
- 65′We said Tauras at 62% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–3 · 2–13–85
- 65′Tauras find the net on 65′. 2–4. 2–4 · 0–2–98
- 65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Hegelmann II 2–4 Tauras
- 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Tauras win: 62% at kick-off, 98% now
- 66′We said Tauras at 62% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 2–4 · 0–2–98
- 66′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 2–4 · 0–2–98
- 81′We said Tauras at 62% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–4 · 0–0–100
- 81′A goal for Hegelmann II on 81′ — 3–4. 3–4 · 0–8–92
- 81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Hegelmann II 3–4 Tauras
- 82′We said Tauras at 62% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 3–4 · 0–7–93
- 83′7 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 3–4 · 0–6–93
- 93′Hegelmann II score on 90′ to make it 4–4. 4–4 · 2–95–3
- 93′We said Tauras at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 4–4 · 2–95–3
- 93′That is 8, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 4–4 · 2–95–3
- 93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Hegelmann II 4–4 Tauras
- 93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+3' Tauras win: 62% at kick-off, 3% now
- 93′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+3' Draw is now our likeliest result at 95% (was Tauras win 3%)
- 94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+4' Tauras win: 62% at kick-off, 2% now
- FTFULL TIME Hegelmann II 4–4 Tauras
- FTHegelmann II 4–4 Tauras · Tauras win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassTauras are clear favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Hegelmann II 20%, draw 18%, Tauras 62%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 55%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off
Hegelmann II win20%
Tauras win62%Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 17:00
RoundMatchday 27
Match timeline
All events
Hegelmann IIMIN
TaurasEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Hegelmann II
Tauras
Last match: 10 Oct · 1 Lyga
Last match: 18 Sept · 1 Lyga
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Tauras a 62% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 12 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–2.1.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 64%, 62% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hegelmann II win | 20% | 28% | −8 |
| Draw | 18% | 22% | −4 |
| Tauras win | 62% | 50% | +12 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 63% | −3 |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 63% | −8 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | 81% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | 41% | −2 |
| Hegelmann II or draw | 38% | 50% | −12 |
| Hegelmann II clean sheet | 13% | – | – |
| Tauras clean sheet | 36% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
5 meetings since 2024Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in 1 Lyga this season · since 15 Aug
HEGELMANN II
TAURAS
The table
2026| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minija | 25 | +55 | 67 |
| 2 | Babrungas | 26 | +34 | 64 |
| 3 | Be1 NFA | 25 | +18 | 51 |
| 4 | Žalgiris II | 26 | +7 | 46 |
| 5 | Neptūną Klaipėda | 26 | +2 | 44 |
| 6 | Tauras | 25 | +12 | 43 |
| 7 | BFA | 26 | +3 | 43 |
| 8 | Dainava | 26 | +10 | 41 |
| 9 | Atmosfera | 25 | +4 | 31 |
| 10 | Jonava | 26 | −7 | 27 |
| 11 | Garliava | 26 | −2 | 26 |
| 12 | Hegelmann II | 26 | −25 | 25 |
| 13 | Kauno Žalgiris II | 26 | −20 | 23 |
| 14 | Transinvest 2 | 26 | −29 | 22 |
| 15 | FA Šiauliai II | 26 | −29 | 18 |
| 16 | Ekranas | 26 | −33 | 15 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Minija
Babrungas
Be1 NFA
Žalgiris II
Neptūną Klaipėda
BFA
Dainava
Atmosfera
Jonava
Garliava
Kauno Žalgiris II
Transinvest 2
FA Šiauliai II
Ekranas