Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.1

Home › Football › 1 Lyga › Hegelmann II v Tauras

Back
Lithuania flag

Hegelmann II v Tauras

Hegelmann II
4–4Full time
Tauras

1 Lyga · FRI 16 OCT

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 19:31
Hegelmann II 4–4 Tauras TAURAS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Tauras win62%
The market said50%
Brier score, this match · lower is better1.090
The market’s Brier score0.931

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay27 notes · 29 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Tauras win at 62%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Tauras 62% before kick-off, 61% now. 0–0 · 18–21–61
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Hegelmann II v Tauras
  4. 6′A goal for Tauras on 6′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 6–12–82
  5. 6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Hegelmann II 0–1 Tauras
  6. 6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Tauras win: 62% at kick-off, 82% now
  7. 7′We said Tauras at 62% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 0–1 · 6–12–82
  8. 26′Hegelmann II score on 26′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 19–26–55
  9. 26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Hegelmann II 1–1 Tauras
  10. 26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Tauras win: 62% at kick-off, 55% now
  11. 31′Hegelmann II find the net on 30′. 2–1. 2–1 · 46–27–26
  12. 31′We said Tauras at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 26%. 2–1 · 46–27–26
  13. 31′⚽ GOAL · 30' Hegelmann II 2–1 Tauras
  14. 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Tauras win: 62% at kick-off, 26% now
  15. 31′THE CALL SWINGS · 31' Hegelmann II win is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Tauras win 26%)
  16. 33′GOAL DISALLOWED · 33' Hegelmann II
  17. 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Tauras win: 62% at kick-off, 53% now
  18. 33′THE CALL SWINGS · 33' Tauras win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Hegelmann II win 19%)
  19. 41′We said Tauras at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 50%. 1–1 · 18–32–50
  20. 42′We said Tauras at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 1–1 · 18–32–49
  21. 43′Hegelmann II find the net on 43′. 2–1. 2–1 · 51–28–21
  22. 43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Hegelmann II 2–1 Tauras
  23. 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Tauras win: 62% at kick-off, 21% now
  24. 43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Hegelmann II win is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Tauras win 21%)
  25. 44′We said Tauras at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 20%. 2–1 · 51–28–20
  26. 45′HALF-TIME Hegelmann II 2–1 Tauras
  27. 46′We said Tauras at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 2–1 · 52–28–19
  28. 46′SECOND HALF Hegelmann II 2–1 Tauras
  29. 51′A goal for Tauras on 51′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 18–37–45
  30. 51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Hegelmann II 2–2 Tauras
  31. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Tauras win: 62% at kick-off, 45% now
  32. 51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Tauras win is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Hegelmann II win 18%)
  33. 52′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 18–38–45
  34. 53′We said Tauras at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 2–2 · 17–39–44
  35. 57′Tauras score on 57′ to make it 2–3. 2–3 · 3–14–83
  36. 57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Hegelmann II 2–3 Tauras
  37. 57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Tauras win: 62% at kick-off, 83% now
  38. 58′5 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 3–14–83
  39. 65′We said Tauras at 62% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–3 · 2–13–85
  40. 65′Tauras find the net on 65′. 2–4. 2–4 · 0–2–98
  41. 65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Hegelmann II 2–4 Tauras
  42. 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Tauras win: 62% at kick-off, 98% now
  43. 66′We said Tauras at 62% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 2–4 · 0–2–98
  44. 66′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 2–4 · 0–2–98
  45. 81′We said Tauras at 62% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–4 · 0–0–100
  46. 81′A goal for Hegelmann II on 81′ — 3–4. 3–4 · 0–8–92
  47. 81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Hegelmann II 3–4 Tauras
  48. 82′We said Tauras at 62% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 3–4 · 0–7–93
  49. 83′7 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 3–4 · 0–6–93
  50. 93′Hegelmann II score on 90′ to make it 4–4. 4–4 · 2–95–3
  51. 93′We said Tauras at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 4–4 · 2–95–3
  52. 93′That is 8, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 4–4 · 2–95–3
  53. 93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Hegelmann II 4–4 Tauras
  54. 93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+3' Tauras win: 62% at kick-off, 3% now
  55. 93′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+3' Draw is now our likeliest result at 95% (was Tauras win 3%)
  56. 94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+4' Tauras win: 62% at kick-off, 2% now
  57. FTFULL TIME Hegelmann II 4–4 Tauras
  58. FTHegelmann II 4–4 Tauras · Tauras win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tauras are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hegelmann II 20%, draw 18%, Tauras 62%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Hegelmann II v TaurasBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Hegelmann II win20%
Draw18%
Tauras win62%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 27

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hegelmann II

Tauras

6Days since last match28

Last match: 10 Oct · 1 Lyga

Last match: 18 Sept · 1 Lyga

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
6Tauras25+1243
12Hegelmann II26−2525

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tauras winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 11 Oct 04:04 · locked at kick-off
62% The market50%
Us62%
Market50%

We make Tauras a 62% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 12 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–2.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Hegelmann II v Tauras1.05 – 2.11
Form · last six in 1 Lyga this season · since 15 AugW3 D0 L3 · W2 D2 L2
Table places · points 25 v 4312 v 6
The market · Tauras win50% · ours 62%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55%60%65% 10 OCT 03:5716 OCT 16:28
Our probability · Tauras win The market, margin stripped

Published at 64%, 62% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Hegelmann II win20%28%−8
Draw18%22%−4
Tauras win62%50%+12
Over 2.5 goals60%63%−3
Both teams to score55%63%−8
Over 1.5 goals81%81%0
Over 3.5 goals39%41%−2
Hegelmann II or draw38%50%−12
Hegelmann II clean sheet13%––
Tauras clean sheet36%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 10.2%
0123450 3.6 10.2 9.4 6.5 3.5 1 5.7 8.4 9.5 6.6 3.5 2 2.5 4.9 5.0 3.5 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Hegelmann II down, Tauras across0–5 goals a side shown (97.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024
Goals a meeting3.20
Over 2.52 of 5
Both scored3 of 5
Last meetingsTAU 6–1 HEG · TAU 0–0 HEG · HEG 1–0 TAU · HEG 3–3 TAU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1 Lyga this season · since 15 Aug

HEGELMANN II

WLWLLW3–2 · 0–3 · 5–1 · 1–4 · 0–1 · 1–0

TAURAS

WDDLLW1–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 3–2

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Minija25+5567
2Babrungas26+3464
3Be1 NFA25+1851
4Žalgiris II26+746
5Neptūną Klaipėda26+244
6Tauras25+1243
7BFA26+343
8Dainava26+1041
9Atmosfera25+431
10Jonava26−727
11Garliava26−226
12Hegelmann II26−2525
13Kauno Žalgiris II26−2023
14Transinvest 226−2922
15FA Šiauliai II26−2918
16Ekranas26−3315

The competition's standings before kick-off.