Garliava v Žalgiris II prediction · 1 Lyga

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 20:01

Garliava 0–2 Žalgiris II ŽALGIRIS II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Žalgiris II win~~42%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.520

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.581

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Žalgiris II win at 42%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Žalgiris II 42% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 35–23–41
1′KICK-OFF Garliava v Žalgiris II
27′A goal for Žalgiris II on 27′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 11–21–68
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Garliava 0–1 Žalgiris II
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Žalgiris II win: 42% at kick-off, 68% now
28′We said Žalgiris II at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 68%. 0–1 · 11–21–68
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 11–21–68
37′We said Žalgiris II at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 0–1 · 9–21–70
45′HALF-TIME Garliava 0–1 Žalgiris II
46′SECOND HALF Garliava 0–1 Žalgiris II
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Žalgiris II win: 42% at kick-off, 72% now
56′We said Žalgiris II at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 5–20–75
68′Žalgiris II score on 68′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 0–3–97
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Garliava 0–2 Žalgiris II
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Žalgiris II win: 42% at kick-off, 97% now
69′We said Žalgiris II at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 0–2 · 0–2–97
83′We said Žalgiris II at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Garliava 0–2 Žalgiris II
FTGarliava 0–2 Žalgiris II · Žalgiris II win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Žalgiris II are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Garliava 35%, draw 23%, Žalgiris II 42%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Garliava v Žalgiris IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Garliava win35%

Draw23%

Žalgiris II win42%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 17:30

RoundMatchday 28

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Garliava

Žalgiris II

6Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · 1 Lyga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Žalgiris II	27	+6	46
11	Garliava	27	−1	29

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · žalgiris ii winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

42% The market38%

Us42%

~~Market~~38%

We make Žalgiris II a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Garliava v Žalgiris II~~1.27 – 1.41

~~Form · last six in 1 Lyga this season · since 28 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 29 v 46~~11 v 4

~~The market · Žalgiris II win~~38% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Žalgiris II win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Garliava win	35%	35%	0
Draw	23%	27%	−4
Žalgiris II win	42%	38%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	50%	59%	−9
Both teams to score	52%	62%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	73%	79%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	28%	39%	−11
Garliava or draw	58%	62%	−4
Garliava clean sheet	25%	–	–
Žalgiris II clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 11.0%

0123450 5.9 11.0 6.8 3.3 1 10.1 10.7 8.3 4.0 2 5.6 7.6 5.3 2.5 3 2.4 3.3 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Garliava down, Žalgiris II across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,352 1 Lyga matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1 Lyga matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.9% of games this season, across 214 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2022 in every competition we cover, 2.20 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Garliava at home: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Žalgiris II away: 1.83 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.27 goals for Garliava, 1.41 for Žalgiris II. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~ZAL 2–1 GAR · ZAL 1–1 GAR · GAR 1–0 ZAL · ZAL 1–0 GAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1 Lyga this season · since 28 Aug

GARLIAVA

LLLWDW0–1 · 2–3 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 3–2

ŽALGIRIS II

WWWLWL1–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 2–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Minija	26	+54	67
2	Babrungas	27	+35	67
3	Be1 NFA	26	+20	54
4	Žalgiris II	27	+6	46
5	Tauras	26	+12	44
6	Dainava	27	+12	44
7	Neptūną Klaipėda	27	0	44
8	BFA	27	0	43
9	Atmosfera	26	+5	34
10	Jonava	27	−4	30
11	Garliava	27	−1	29
12	Hegelmann II	27	−25	26
13	Transinvest 2	27	−27	25
14	Kauno Žalgiris II	27	−22	23
15	FA Šiauliai II	27	−30	18
16	Ekranas	27	−35	15