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Garliava v Atmosfera

Garliava

0–0Full time

Atmosfera

1 Lyga · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 14:35

Garliava 0–0 Atmosfera ATMOSFERA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Atmosfera win~~44%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.888

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.815

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Atmosfera win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Atmosfera 44% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 31–26–43
1′KICK-OFF Garliava v Atmosfera
45′HALF-TIME Garliava 0–0 Atmosfera
45′SECOND HALF Garliava 0–0 Atmosfera
50′We said Atmosfera at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 32%. 0–0 · 25–43–32
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Atmosfera win: 44% at kick-off, 32% now
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Atmosfera win 32%)
69′We said Atmosfera at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 22%. 0–0 · 18–60–22
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Atmosfera win: 44% at kick-off, 22% now
90′We said Atmosfera at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 0%. 0–0 · 0–100–0
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Atmosfera win: 44% at kick-off, 0% now
FTFULL TIME Garliava 0–0 Atmosfera
FTGarliava 0–0 Atmosfera · Atmosfera win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Garliava win33%

Draw23%

Atmosfera win44%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 12:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · atmosfera winPublished 10 Oct 12:19

44% The market43%

Us44%

~~Market~~43%

We make Atmosfera a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · atmosfera win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 45% to 43% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Garliava win	33%	31%	+2
Draw	23%	27%	−3
Atmosfera win	44%	43%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	48%	56%	−8
Both teams to score	50%	59%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	71%	78%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	26%	35%	−9
Garliava or draw	56%	57%	−1
Garliava clean sheet	25%	–	–
Atmosfera clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 12.1%

0123450 6.5 12.1 7.5 3.6 1 10.2 10.8 8.5 4.1 2 5.2 7.1 4.9 2.4 3 2.1 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Garliava down, Atmosfera across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,340 1 Lyga matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

1 Lyga matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.4% of games this season, across 202 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Garliava at home: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Atmosfera away: 1.17 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.17 goals for Garliava, 1.42 for Atmosfera. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~4 of 5

~~Last meetings~~ATM 1–1 GAR · GAR 0–1 ATM · ATM 3–2 GAR · ATM 2–3 GAR

Form · last six in 1 Lyga

GARLIAVA

LLLLLW0–2 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 2–3 · 2–1

ATMOSFERA

LDLWLD0–2 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 3–1 · 2–3 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Minija	25	+55	67
2	Babrungas	25	+32	61
3	Be1 NFA	25	+18	51
4	Žalgiris II	26	+7	46
5	Neptūną Klaipėda	25	+3	44
6	Tauras	25	+12	43
7	BFA	26	+3	43
8	Dainava	26	+10	41
9	Atmosfera	24	+4	30
10	Jonava	25	−5	27
11	Garliava	25	−2	25
12	Kauno Žalgiris II	26	−20	23
13	Hegelmann II	25	−26	22
14	Transinvest 2	25	−29	21
15	FA Šiauliai II	26	−29	18
16	Ekranas	25	−33	14