FA Šiauliai II v Garliava prediction · 1 Lyga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:42

FA Šiauliai II 2–3 Garliava GARLIAVA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Garliava win~~43%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.501

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.414

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Garliava win at 43%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Garliava 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 36–22–43
1′KICK-OFF FA Šiauliai II v Garliava
16′Garliava score on 15′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 14–20–66
16′We said Garliava at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 66%. 0–1 · 14–20–66
16′⚽ GOAL · 15' FA Šiauliai II 0–1 Garliava
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Garliava win: 43% at kick-off, 66% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 0–1 · 12–21–68
42′We said Garliava at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 0–1 · 9–21–70
45′FA Šiauliai II find the net on 45′. 1–1. 1–1 · 30–36–34
45′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' FA Šiauliai II 1–1 Garliava
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Garliava win: 43% at kick-off, 34% now
45′HALF-TIME FA Šiauliai II 1–1 Garliava
46′SECOND HALF FA Šiauliai II 1–1 Garliava
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Garliava win: 43% at kick-off, 33% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Garliava win 33%)
54′We said Garliava at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 31%. 1–1 · 27–41–31
58′A goal for Garliava on 58′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 6–20–74
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' FA Šiauliai II 1–2 Garliava
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Garliava win: 43% at kick-off, 74% now
58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Garliava win is now our likeliest result at 74% (was Draw 20%)
60′We said Garliava at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–2 · 5–20–75
63′Garliava score on 62′ to make it 1–3. 1–3 · 1–4–95
63′We said Garliava at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–3 · 1–4–95
63′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 1–4–95
63′⚽ GOAL · 62' FA Šiauliai II 1–3 Garliava
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Garliava win: 43% at kick-off, 95% now
84′We said Garliava at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
91′FA Šiauliai II find the net on 90′. 2–3. 2–3 · 0–4–96
91′5 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 0–4–96
91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' FA Šiauliai II 2–3 Garliava
FTFULL TIME FA Šiauliai II 2–3 Garliava
FTFA Šiauliai II 2–3 Garliava · Garliava win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Garliava are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FA Šiauliai II 36%, draw 22%, Garliava 43%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on FA Šiauliai II v GarliavaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

FA Šiauliai II win36%

Draw22%

Garliava win43%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 27

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FA Šiauliai II

Garliava

8Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · 1 Lyga

Last match: 10 Oct · 1 Lyga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Garliava	26	−2	26
15	FA Šiauliai II	26	−29	18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · garliava winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

43% The market47%

Us43%

~~Market~~47%

We make Garliava a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FA Šiauliai II v Garliava~~1.43 – 1.60

~~Form · last six in 1 Lyga this season · since 21 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 18 v 26~~15 v 11

~~The market · Garliava win~~47% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Garliava win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FA Šiauliai II win	36%	28%	+8
Draw	22%	25%	−3
Garliava win	43%	47%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	58%	62%	−4
Both teams to score	59%	64%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	79%	81%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	36%	43%	−7
FA Šiauliai II or draw	57%	53%	+4
FA Šiauliai II clean sheet	21%	–	–
Garliava clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.7%

0123450 4.0 9.0 6.2 3.3 1 8.2 9.7 8.5 4.6 2 5.0 7.7 6.0 3.2 3 2.4 3.7 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FA Šiauliai II down, Garliava across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,349 1 Lyga matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1 Lyga matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.3% of games this season, across 211 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2022 in every competition we cover, 3.33 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FA Šiauliai II at home: 1.17 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Garliava away: 0.67 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for FA Šiauliai II, 1.60 for Garliava. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.33

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~GAR 1–1 FAS · GAR 2–4 FAS · FAS 0–0 GAR · FAS 3–3 GAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1 Lyga this season · since 21 Aug

FA ŠIAULIAI II

WLLLWD1–0 · 1–2 · 1–5 · 0–2 · 6–2 · 3–3

GARLIAVA

LLLLWD0–1 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Minija	26	+54	67
2	Babrungas	27	+35	67
3	Be1 NFA	26	+20	54
4	Žalgiris II	26	+7	46
5	Tauras	26	+12	44
6	Dainava	27	+12	44
7	Neptūną Klaipėda	27	0	44
8	BFA	27	0	43
9	Atmosfera	25	+4	31
10	Jonava	27	−4	30
11	Garliava	26	−2	26
12	Hegelmann II	27	−25	26
13	Transinvest 2	27	−27	25
14	Kauno Žalgiris II	27	−22	23
15	FA Šiauliai II	26	−29	18
16	Ekranas	27	−35	15