Ekranas v Tauras prediction · 1 Lyga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

EkranasDrawTauras

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Tauras 64%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tauras are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ekranas 19%, draw 17%, Tauras 64%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Ekranas v TaurasBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Ekranas win19%

Draw17%

Tauras win64%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 29

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ekranas

Tauras

6Days since last match6

Last match: 24 Oct · 1 Lyga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Tauras	27	+11	44
16	Ekranas	28	−33	18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tauras winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · updated 25 Oct 00:20 · locked at kick-off

64% The market–

Us64%

We make Tauras a 64% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–2.3, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ekranas v Tauras~~1.11 – 2.30

~~Form · last six in 1 Lyga this season · since 28 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 18 v 44~~16 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Tauras win

Published at 67%, 64% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ekranas win	19%	–	–
Draw	17%	–	–
Tauras win	64%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	65%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	44%	–	–
Ekranas or draw	36%	–	–
Ekranas clean sheet	11%	–	–
Tauras clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 9.3%

0123450 2.7 8.7 8.6 6.5 3.8 1 4.9 7.6 9.3 7.0 4.1 2 2.2 4.7 5.1 3.9 2.2 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ekranas down, Tauras across0–5 goals a side shown (96.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,357 1 Lyga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1 Lyga matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.9% of games this season, across 219 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 3.83 goals a meeting; 5 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ekranas at home: 0.83 scored, 3.33 conceded a game (last 6). Tauras away: 1.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.11 goals for Ekranas, 2.30 for Tauras. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.83

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 6

~~Both scored~~5 of 6

~~Last meetings~~TAU 2–1 EKR · TAU 0–0 EKR · EKR 1–3 TAU · TAU 3–1 EKR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1 Lyga this season · since 28 Aug

EKRANAS

WLLDLW1–0 · 1–2 · 2–6 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 2–0

TAURAS

DLLWDL2–2 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 3–2 · 4–4 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Minija	27	+53	67
2	Babrungas	27	+35	67
3	Be1 NFA	27	+21	57
4	Žalgiris II	28	+8	49
5	BFA	28	+1	46
6	Dainava	27	+12	44
7	Tauras	27	+11	44
8	Neptūną Klaipėda	28	−2	44
9	Atmosfera	27	+8	37
10	Jonava	28	−7	30
11	Garliava	28	−3	29
12	Hegelmann II	27	−25	26
13	Transinvest 2	27	−27	25
14	Kauno Žalgiris II	27	−22	23
15	FA Šiauliai II	27	−30	18
16	Ekranas	28	−33	18