Ekranas v Dainava

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Dainava win at 61%.
2. 1′Much as we predicted: Dainava was 61% before kick-off and our model makes it 61% now. 0–0 · 18–21–61
3. 1′KICK-OFF Ekranas v Dainava
4. 9′We said Dainava at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–0 · 41–25–34
5. 9′⚽ GOAL · 9' Ekranas 1–0 Dainava
6. 9′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 9' Dainava win: 61% at kick-off, 34% now
7. 9′THE CALL SWINGS · 9' Ekranas win is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Dainava win 34%)
8. 10′Ekranas find the net on 9′. 1–0. 1–0 · 41–25–34
9. 16′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 16' Dainava win: 61% at kick-off, 31% now
10. 21′We said Dainava at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–0 · 44–26–29
11. 24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Ekranas 1–1 Dainava
12. 24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Dainava win: 61% at kick-off, 55% now
13. 24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' Dainava win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Ekranas win 18%)
14. 25′A goal for Dainava on 25′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 18–27–55
15. 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Dainava win: 61% at kick-off, 51% now
16. 40′We said Dainava at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 1–1 · 18–33–49
17. 45′SECOND HALF Ekranas 1–1 Dainava
18. 47′HALF-TIME Ekranas 1–1 Dainava
19. 49′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 1–1 · 17–37–45
20. 50′We published Dainava at 61%. Our model now makes it 83%. 1–2 · 3–14–83
21. 50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Ekranas 1–2 Dainava
22. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Dainava win: 61% at kick-off, 83% now
23. 51′We said Dainava at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 1–1 · 17–39–44 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
24. 51′That is 3, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 3–14–83
25. 51′Dainava score on 51′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 3–14–83
26. 51′PENALTY MISSED · 51' Dainava
27. 61′🟥 RED CARD · 61' Ekranas
28. 63′A red card for Ekranas on 62′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–2 · 2–13–85
29. 64′We published Dainava at 61%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–2 · 2–13–85
30. 77′We published Dainava at 61%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–2 · 1–9–90
31. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Dainava win: 61% at kick-off, 91% now
32. 81′We published Dainava at 61%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
33. 81′4 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 0–0–100
34. 81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Ekranas 1–3 Dainava
35. 82′Dainava find the net on 82′. 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
36. 94′Full time, 1–3. We called Dainava at 61% — that one lands. 1–3 · 0–0–100
37. FTFULL TIME Ekranas 1–3 Dainava
38. FTEkranas 1–3 Dainava · Dainava win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.