Dainava v Kauno Žalgiris II prediction · 1 Lyga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

DainavaDrawKauno Žalgiris II

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Dainava 64%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Dainava are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dainava 64%, draw 19%, Kauno Žalgiris II 17%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Dainava v Kauno Žalgiris IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Dainava win64%

Draw19%

Kauno Žalgiris II win17%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 28

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dainava

Kauno Žalgiris II

9Days since last match9

Last match: 16 Oct · 1 Lyga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Dainava	27	+12	44
14	Kauno Žalgiris II	27	−22	23

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · dainava winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

64% The market62%

Us64%

~~Market~~62%

We make Dainava a 64% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.0–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dainava v Kauno Žalgiris II~~2.01 – 0.89

~~Form · last six in 1 Lyga this season · since 4 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 44 v 23~~6 v 14

~~The market · Dainava win~~62% · ours 64%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Dainava win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 62% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dainava win	64%	62%	+2
Draw	19%	21%	−2
Kauno Žalgiris II win	17%	17%	0
Over 2.5 goals	55%	64%	−9
Both teams to score	49%	58%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	77%	84%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	33%	43%	−10
Dainava or draw	83%	83%	0
Dainava clean sheet	42%	–	–
Kauno Žalgiris II clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.3%

0123450 4.9 6.1 2.3 1 12.3 8.7 4.4 2 11.0 9.4 4.2 3 7.3 6.3 2.8 4 3.8 3.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dainava down, Kauno Žalgiris II across0–5 goals a side shown (97.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,357 1 Lyga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1 Lyga matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.9% of games this season, across 219 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dainava at home: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Kauno Žalgiris II away: 1.00 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.01 goals for Dainava, 0.89 for Kauno Žalgiris II. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~KAU 0–2 DAI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1 Lyga this season · since 4 Sept

DAINAVA

DLWLDW0–0 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 3–1

KAUNO ŽALGIRIS II

LWWLDL0–1 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 0–5 · 3–3 · 0–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Minija	27	+53	67
2	Babrungas	27	+35	67
3	Be1 NFA	27	+21	57
4	Žalgiris II	28	+8	49
5	BFA	28	+1	46
6	Dainava	27	+12	44
7	Tauras	27	+11	44
8	Neptūną Klaipėda	28	−2	44
9	Atmosfera	27	+8	37
10	Jonava	28	−7	30
11	Garliava	28	−3	29
12	Hegelmann II	27	−25	26
13	Transinvest 2	27	−27	25
14	Kauno Žalgiris II	27	−22	23
15	FA Šiauliai II	27	−30	18
16	Ekranas	28	−33	18