BFA v Minija prediction · 1 Lyga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

BFA 2–1 Minija MINIJA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Minija win~~51%

~~The market said~~64%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.831

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.188

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Minija win at 51%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Minija 51% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 28–21–51
1′KICK-OFF BFA v Minija
22′BFA score on 22′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 53–25–22
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' BFA 1–0 Minija
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Minija win: 51% at kick-off, 22% now
22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' BFA win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Minija win 47%)
23′We said Minija at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 22%. 1–0 · 53–25–22
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Minija win: 51% at kick-off, 21% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 1–0 · 55–25–20
32′We said Minija at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 55–25–19
45′HALF-TIME BFA 1–0 Minija
46′We said Minija at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 60–26–14
46′SECOND HALF BFA 1–0 Minija
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Minija win: 51% at kick-off, 11% now
55′Minija find the net on 54′. 1–1. 1–1 · 22–42–36
55′We said Minija at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 36%. 1–1 · 22–42–36
55′⚽ GOAL · 54' BFA 1–1 Minija
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Minija win: 51% at kick-off, 36% now
55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was BFA win 64%)
56′A goal for BFA on 56′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 65–25–10
56′3 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 65–25–10
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' BFA 2–1 Minija
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Minija win: 51% at kick-off, 10% now
56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' BFA win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Draw 43%)
59′We said Minija at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 2–1 · 66–25–9
72′We said Minija at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–1 · 76–20–4
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Minija win: 51% at kick-off, 1% now
FTFULL TIME BFA 2–1 Minija
FTBFA 2–1 Minija · Minija win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Minija are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: BFA 28%, draw 21%, Minija 51%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on BFA v MinijaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

BFA win28%

Draw21%

Minija win51%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 28

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

BFA

Minija

8Days since last match7

Last match: 16 Oct · 1 Lyga

Last match: 17 Oct · 1 Lyga

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · minija winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

51% The market64%

Us51%

~~Market~~64%

We make Minija a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 64%. We are 13 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · BFA v Minija~~1.20 – 1.78

~~Form · last six in 1 Lyga this season · since 28 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 43 v 67~~8 v 1

~~The market · Minija win~~64% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Minija win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 64% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
BFA win	28%	15%	+13
Draw	21%	21%	0
Minija win	51%	64%	−13
Over 2.5 goals	57%	58%	−1
Both teams to score	56%	52%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	78%	78%	0
Over 3.5 goals	35%	37%	−2
BFA or draw	49%	36%	+13
BFA clean sheet	18%	–	–
Minija clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 10.2%

0123450 4.3 10.2 7.8 4.7 2.2 1 7.6 9.5 9.1 5.4 2.5 2 3.9 6.4 5.4 3.2 3 2.6 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+BFA down, Minija across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,353 1 Lyga matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1 Lyga matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.6% of games this season, across 215 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

BFA at home: 2.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Minija away: 2.50 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for BFA, 1.78 for Minija. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~MIN 3–0 BFA · MIN 1–1 BFA · BFA 1–0 MIN · BFA 1–1 MIN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1 Lyga this season · since 28 Aug

BFA

DWWDLL2–2 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–3

MINIJA

WWWWWL2–1 · 3–0 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 5–0 · 2–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Minija	26	+54	67
2	Babrungas	27	+35	67
3	Be1 NFA	26	+20	54
4	Žalgiris II	28	+8	49
5	Tauras	26	+12	44
6	Dainava	27	+12	44
7	Neptūną Klaipėda	27	0	44
8	BFA	27	0	43
9	Atmosfera	26	+5	34
10	Jonava	27	−4	30
11	Garliava	28	−3	29
12	Hegelmann II	27	−25	26
13	Transinvest 2	27	−27	25
14	Kauno Žalgiris II	27	−22	23
15	FA Šiauliai II	27	−30	18
16	Ekranas	27	−35	15