Be1 NFA v Neptūną Klaipėda prediction · 1 Lyga

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 18:31

Be1 NFA 2–0 Neptūną Klaipėda BE1 NFA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Be1 NFA win~~40%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.552

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.370

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Be1 NFA win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Be1 NFA 40% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–26–35
1′KICK-OFF Be1 NFA v Neptūną Klaipėda
10′Be1 NFA score on 9′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 65–20–14
10′We said Be1 NFA at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 65%. 1–0 · 65–20–14
10′⚽ GOAL · 9' Be1 NFA 1–0 Neptūną Klaipėda
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 10' Be1 NFA win: 40% at kick-off, 65% now
25′Be1 NFA find the net on 25′. 2–0. 2–0 · 88–9–3
25′We said Be1 NFA at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 88%. 2–0 · 88–9–3
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Be1 NFA 2–0 Neptūną Klaipėda
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Be1 NFA win: 40% at kick-off, 88% now
33′We said Be1 NFA at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–0 · 90–8–2
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Be1 NFA win: 40% at kick-off, 90% now
45′HALF-TIME Be1 NFA 2–0 Neptūną Klaipėda
46′SECOND HALF Be1 NFA 2–0 Neptūną Klaipėda
55′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 2–0 · 94–5–1
57′We said Be1 NFA at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–5–1
83′We said Be1 NFA at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Be1 NFA win: 40% at kick-off, over 99% now
FTFULL TIME Be1 NFA 2–0 Neptūną Klaipėda
FTBe1 NFA 2–0 Neptūną Klaipėda · Be1 NFA win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Be1 NFA just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Be1 NFA 40%, draw 23%, Neptūną Klaipėda 37%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Be1 NFA v Neptūną KlaipėdaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Be1 NFA win40%

Draw23%

Neptūną Klaipėda win37%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 15:30

RoundMatchday 27

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Be1 NFA

Neptūną Klaipėda

7Days since last match6

Last match: 9 Oct · 1 Lyga

Last match: 10 Oct · 1 Lyga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Be1 NFA	25	+18	51
5	Neptūną Klaipėda	26	+2	44

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · be1 nfa winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 11 Oct 04:04 · locked at kick-off

40% The market50%

Us40%

~~Market~~50%

We make Be1 NFA a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Be1 NFA v Neptūną Klaipėda~~1.36 – 1.29

~~Form · last six in 1 Lyga this season · since 21 Aug~~W5 D1 L0 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 51 v 44~~3 v 5

~~The market · Be1 NFA win~~50% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Be1 NFA win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 40% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Be1 NFA win	40%	50%	−10
Draw	23%	26%	−3
Neptūną Klaipėda win	37%	24%	+13
Over 2.5 goals	49%	55%	−6
Both teams to score	52%	57%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	72%	77%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	28%	35%	−7
Be1 NFA or draw	63%	76%	−13
Be1 NFA clean sheet	28%	–	–
Neptūną Klaipėda clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.0%

0123450 6.2 10.5 5.9 2.6 1 11.0 10.9 7.8 3.4 2 6.5 8.1 5.2 2.3 3 3.0 3.7 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Be1 NFA down, Neptūną Klaipėda across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,344 1 Lyga matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1 Lyga matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.3% of games this season, across 206 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2022 in every competition we cover, 2.78 goals a meeting; 5 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Be1 NFA at home: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Neptūną Klaipėda away: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.36 goals for Be1 NFA, 1.29 for Neptūną Klaipėda. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.78

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 9

~~Both scored~~6 of 9

~~Last meetings~~NEP 1–0 BEN · BEN 0–4 NEP · NEP 3–0 BEN · NEP 4–1 BEN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1 Lyga this season · since 21 Aug

BE1 NFA

WWWWWD2–0 · 5–0 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 2–2

NEPTŪNĄ KLAIPĖDA

LWLWLL0–2 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Minija	25	+55	67
2	Babrungas	26	+34	64
3	Be1 NFA	25	+18	51
4	Žalgiris II	26	+7	46
5	Neptūną Klaipėda	26	+2	44
6	Tauras	25	+12	43
7	BFA	26	+3	43
8	Dainava	26	+10	41
9	Atmosfera	25	+4	31
10	Jonava	26	−7	27
11	Garliava	26	−2	26
12	Hegelmann II	26	−25	25
13	Kauno Žalgiris II	26	−20	23
14	Transinvest 2	26	−29	22
15	FA Šiauliai II	26	−29	18
16	Ekranas	26	−33	15