Home › Football › 1 Lyga › Be1 NFA v Dainava

Be1 NFA v Dainava

Be1 NFA

2–2Full time

Dainava

1 Lyga · FRI 9 OCT

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 18:03

Be1 NFA 2–2 Dainava BE1 NFA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Be1 NFA win~~40%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.850

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.816

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Be1 NFA win40%

Draw25%

Dainava win35%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 15:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · be1 nfa winPublished 9 Oct 15:22

40% The market46%

Us40%

~~Market~~46%

We make Be1 NFA a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · be1 nfa win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 47% to 46% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Be1 NFA win	40%	46%	−6
Draw	25%	27%	−2
Dainava win	35%	27%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	42%	53%	−11
Both teams to score	46%	57%	−11
Over 1.5 goals	67%	76%	−9
Over 3.5 goals	22%	33%	−11
Be1 NFA or draw	65%	73%	−8
Be1 NFA clean sheet	33%	–	–
Dainava clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.9%

0123450 8.2 12.0 6.0 2.3 1 12.9 11.3 7.2 2.8 2 7.2 7.9 4.5 3 3.1 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Be1 NFA down, Dainava across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,337 1 Lyga matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

1 Lyga matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.8% of games this season, across 199 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 2.33 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Be1 NFA at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Dainava away: 0.83 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.25 goals for Be1 NFA, 1.14 for Dainava. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~3 of 3

~~Last meetings~~DAI 1–2 BEN · DAI 1–1 BEN · BEN 1–1 DAI

Form · last six in 1 Lyga

BE1 NFA

WWWWWW2–1 · 2–0 · 5–0 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 2–1

DAINAVA

DLDLWL1–1 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Minija	25	+55	67
2	Babrungas	25	+32	61
3	Be1 NFA	24	+18	50
4	Neptūną Klaipėda	25	+3	44
5	Tauras	25	+12	43
6	Žalgiris II	25	+6	43
7	BFA	25	+4	43
8	Dainava	25	+10	40
9	Atmosfera	24	+4	30
10	Jonava	25	−5	27
11	Garliava	25	−2	25
12	Kauno Žalgiris II	25	−20	22
13	Hegelmann II	25	−26	22
14	Transinvest 2	25	−29	21
15	FA Šiauliai II	25	−29	17
16	Ekranas	25	−33	14