Be1 NFA v Babrungas prediction · 1 Lyga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Be1 NFADrawBabrungas

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Babrungas 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Babrungas are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Be1 NFA 31%, draw 24%, Babrungas 45%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Be1 NFA v BabrungasBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Be1 NFA win31%

Draw24%

Babrungas win45%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 15:30

RoundMatchday 29

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Be1 NFA

Babrungas

6Days since last match13

Last match: 24 Oct · 1 Lyga

Last match: 17 Oct · 1 Lyga

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Babrungas	27	+35	67
3	Be1 NFA	27	+21	57

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · babrungas winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · updated 25 Oct 00:20 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Babrungas a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.4, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Be1 NFA v Babrungas~~1.13 – 1.43

~~Form · last six in 1 Lyga this season · since 29 Aug~~W5 D1 L0 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 57 v 67~~3 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Babrungas win

Published at 46%, 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Be1 NFA win	31%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Babrungas win	45%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	47%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Be1 NFA or draw	55%	–	–
Be1 NFA clean sheet	25%	–	–
Babrungas clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 12.4%

0123450 6.9 12.4 7.9 3.8 1 10.1 10.9 8.6 4.1 2 5.0 6.9 4.8 2.3 3 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Be1 NFA down, Babrungas across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,357 1 Lyga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1 Lyga matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.9% of games this season, across 219 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2022 in every competition we cover, 1.67 goals a meeting; 2 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Be1 NFA at home: 1.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Babrungas away: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.13 goals for Be1 NFA, 1.43 for Babrungas. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~1.67

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 9

~~Both scored~~1 of 9

~~Last meetings~~BAB 1–0 BEN · BAB 4–0 BEN · BEN 1–2 BAB · BAB 0–0 BEN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1 Lyga this season · since 29 Aug

BE1 NFA

WWWDWW1–0 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 2–1

BABRUNGAS

WLWWWW1–0 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 3–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Minija	27	+53	67
2	Babrungas	27	+35	67
3	Be1 NFA	27	+21	57
4	Žalgiris II	28	+8	49
5	BFA	28	+1	46
6	Dainava	27	+12	44
7	Tauras	27	+11	44
8	Neptūną Klaipėda	28	−2	44
9	Atmosfera	27	+8	37
10	Jonava	28	−7	30
11	Garliava	28	−3	29
12	Hegelmann II	27	−25	26
13	Transinvest 2	27	−27	25
14	Kauno Žalgiris II	27	−22	23
15	FA Šiauliai II	27	−30	18
16	Ekranas	28	−33	18