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Babrungas v Jonava

Babrungas
2–0Full time
Jonava

1 Lyga · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 14:35
Babrungas 2–0 Jonava BABRUNGAS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Babrungas win62%
The market said65%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.222
The market’s Brier score0.187

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 16 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Babrungas win at 62%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Babrungas was 62% before kick-off and our model makes it 61% now. 0–0 · 61–24–15
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Babrungas v Jonava
  4. 42′We said Babrungas at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 47%. 0–0 · 47–39–14
  5. 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Babrungas win: 62% at kick-off, 47% now
  6. 45′HALF-TIME Babrungas 0–0 Jonava
  7. 45′SECOND HALF Babrungas 0–0 Jonava
  8. 46′SECOND HALF Babrungas 0–0 Jonava
  9. 46′⚽ GOAL · 47' Babrungas 1–0 Jonava
  10. 47′A goal for Babrungas on 47′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 86–12–2
  11. 47′SECOND HALF Babrungas 0–0 Jonava
  12. 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Babrungas win: 62% at kick-off, 86% now
  13. 48′SECOND HALF Babrungas 0–0 Jonava
  14. 49′SECOND HALF Babrungas 0–0 Jonava
  15. 50′SECOND HALF Babrungas 0–0 Jonava
  16. 51′SECOND HALF Babrungas 0–0 Jonava
  17. 68′We published Babrungas at 62%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
  18. 77′⚽ GOAL · 78' Babrungas 1–0 Jonava
  19. 79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Babrungas 2–0 Jonava
  20. 88′78′ and it is 2–0: Babrungas have scored. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  21. 88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Babrungas win: 62% at kick-off, 100% now
  22. FTFULL TIME Babrungas 2–0 Jonava
  23. FTBabrungas 2–0 Jonava · Babrungas win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Babrungas win62%
Draw22%
Jonava win16%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 12:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · babrungas winPublished 10 Oct 12:19
62% The market65%
Us62%
Market65%

We make Babrungas a 62% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–0.7.

How the number movedSince we published
60%65%70% 9 OCT 06:1910 OCT 09:11
Our probability · babrungas win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Babrungas win62%65%−3
Draw22%22%0
Jonava win16%13%+3
Over 2.5 goals41%53%−12
Both teams to score38%47%−9
Over 1.5 goals66%75%−9
Over 3.5 goals21%32%−11
Babrungas or draw84%87%−3
Babrungas clean sheet52%––
Jonava clean sheet20%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 17.4%
0123450 9.1 7.9 2.3 1 17.4 9.4 3.6 2 13.1 8.5 2.9 3 7.3 4.7 4 3.1 2.0 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Babrungas down, Jonava across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting3.43
Over 2.56 of 7
Both scored7 of 7
Last meetingsJON 1–1 BAB · BAB 1–2 JON · JON 1–2 BAB · BAB 2–1 JON

Form · last six in 1 Lyga

BABRUNGAS

WDWLWW4–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 1–0

JONAVA

LLWDLL1–2 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 2–3

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Minija25+5567
2Babrungas25+3261
3Be1 NFA25+1851
4Žalgiris II26+746
5Neptūną Klaipėda25+344
6Tauras25+1243
7BFA26+343
8Dainava26+1041
9Atmosfera24+430
10Jonava25−527
11Garliava25−225
12Kauno Žalgiris II26−2023
13Hegelmann II25−2622
14Transinvest 225−2921
15FA Šiauliai II26−2918
16Ekranas25−3314

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.