Babrungas v Hegelmann II prediction · 1 Lyga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

BabrungasDrawHegelmann II

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Babrungas 76%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Babrungas are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Babrungas 76%, draw 13%, Hegelmann II 10%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Babrungas v Hegelmann IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Babrungas win76%

Draw13%

Hegelmann II win10%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 28

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Babrungas

Hegelmann II

8Days since last match9

Last match: 17 Oct · 1 Lyga

Last match: 16 Oct · 1 Lyga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Babrungas	27	+35	67
12	Hegelmann II	27	−25	26

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · babrungas winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

76% The market68%

Us76%

~~Market~~68%

We make Babrungas a 76% chance to win. The market has them at 68%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.7–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Babrungas v Hegelmann II~~2.69 – 0.82

~~Form · last six in 1 Lyga this season · since 29 Aug~~W5 D0 L1 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 67 v 26~~2 v 12

~~The market · Babrungas win~~68% · ours 76%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Babrungas win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 68% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Babrungas win	76%	68%	+8
Draw	13%	18%	−5
Hegelmann II win	10%	14%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	67%	68%	−1
Both teams to score	50%	59%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	85%	84%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	46%	43%	+3
Babrungas or draw	90%	86%	+4
Babrungas clean sheet	45%	–	–
Hegelmann II clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.7%

0123450 2.6 3.5 1 9.1 6.0 2.8 2 10.7 8.5 3.6 3 9.4 7.4 3.1 4 6.4 5.0 2.0 5 3.6 2.8

under 2% 5% 12%+Babrungas down, Hegelmann II across0–5 goals a side shown (93.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,353 1 Lyga matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1 Lyga matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.6% of games this season, across 215 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 3.80 goals a meeting; 4 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Babrungas at home: 1.50 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Hegelmann II away: 0.83 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.69 goals for Babrungas, 0.82 for Hegelmann II. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.80

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~HEG 0–1 BAB · BAB 4–1 HEG · HEG 4–2 BAB · BAB 2–1 HEG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1 Lyga this season · since 29 Aug

BABRUNGAS

WLWWWW1–0 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 3–2

HEGELMANN II

LWLLWD0–3 · 5–1 · 1–4 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 4–4

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Minija	27	+53	67
2	Babrungas	27	+35	67
3	Be1 NFA	27	+21	57
4	Žalgiris II	28	+8	49
5	BFA	28	+1	46
6	Dainava	27	+12	44
7	Tauras	27	+11	44
8	Neptūną Klaipėda	28	−2	44
9	Atmosfera	27	+8	37
10	Jonava	28	−7	30
11	Garliava	28	−3	29
12	Hegelmann II	27	−25	26
13	Transinvest 2	27	−27	25
14	Kauno Žalgiris II	27	−22	23
15	FA Šiauliai II	27	−30	18
16	Ekranas	28	−33	18