Atmosfera v Jonava prediction · 1 Lyga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

Atmosfera 3–0 Jonava ATMOSFERA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Atmosfera win~~49%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.387

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.473

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Atmosfera win at 49%.
1′Much as we predicted: Atmosfera was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–24–26
1′KICK-OFF Atmosfera v Jonava
24′A goal for Atmosfera on 24′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 75–18–7
24′We published Atmosfera at 49%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–7
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Atmosfera 1–0 Jonava
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Atmosfera win: 49% at kick-off, 75% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 76–18–6
45′HALF-TIME Atmosfera 1–0 Jonava
46′SECOND HALF Atmosfera 1–0 Jonava
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Atmosfera win: 49% at kick-off, 79% now
52′We published Atmosfera at 49%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
68′We published Atmosfera at 49%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Atmosfera win: 49% at kick-off, 89% now
78′We published Atmosfera at 49%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
85′We published Atmosfera at 49%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
87′Atmosfera score on 86′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
87′We published Atmosfera at 49%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
87′⚽ GOAL · 86' Atmosfera 2–0 Jonava
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Atmosfera win: 49% at kick-off, over 99% now
92′Atmosfera find the net on 90′. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Atmosfera 3–0 Jonava
93′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Atmosfera 3–0 Jonava
FTAtmosfera 3–0 Jonava · Atmosfera win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Atmosfera are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Atmosfera 49%, draw 24%, Jonava 27%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Atmosfera v JonavaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Atmosfera win49%

Draw24%

Jonava win27%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 28

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Atmosfera

Jonava

7Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · 1 Lyga

Last match: 16 Oct · 1 Lyga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Atmosfera	26	+5	34
10	Jonava	27	−4	30

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · atmosfera winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

49% The market44%

Us49%

~~Market~~44%

We make Atmosfera a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Atmosfera v Jonava~~1.43 – 0.95

~~Form · last six in 1 Lyga this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 34 v 30~~9 v 10

~~The market · Atmosfera win~~44% · ours 49%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Atmosfera win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atmosfera win	49%	44%	+5
Draw	24%	27%	−3
Jonava win	27%	29%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	42%	53%	−11
Both teams to score	44%	56%	−12
Over 1.5 goals	67%	76%	−9
Over 3.5 goals	22%	31%	−9
Atmosfera or draw	73%	71%	+2
Atmosfera clean sheet	39%	–	–
Jonava clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.6%

0123450 8.4 10.2 4.2 1 14.6 11.0 5.8 2 9.4 8.6 4.1 3 4.5 4.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atmosfera down, Jonava across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,353 1 Lyga matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1 Lyga matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.6% of games this season, across 215 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.43 goals a meeting; 3 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Atmosfera at home: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Jonava away: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for Atmosfera, 0.95 for Jonava. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.43

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 7

~~Both scored~~2 of 7

~~Last meetings~~JON 1–1 ATM · JON 0–2 ATM · ATM 0–1 JON · JON 0–2 ATM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1 Lyga this season · since 29 Aug

ATMOSFERA

LWLDDW1–3 · 3–1 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 3–2

JONAVA

WDLLLW2–1 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 2–3 · 0–2 · 3–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Minija	26	+54	67
2	Babrungas	27	+35	67
3	Be1 NFA	26	+20	54
4	Žalgiris II	28	+8	49
5	Tauras	26	+12	44
6	Dainava	27	+12	44
7	Neptūną Klaipėda	27	0	44
8	BFA	27	0	43
9	Atmosfera	26	+5	34
10	Jonava	27	−4	30
11	Garliava	28	−3	29
12	Hegelmann II	27	−25	26
13	Transinvest 2	27	−27	25
14	Kauno Žalgiris II	27	−22	23
15	FA Šiauliai II	27	−30	18
16	Ekranas	27	−35	15