Wologizi v Heaven Eleven prediction · LFA First Division

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 16:01

Wologizi 0–3 Heaven Eleven HEAVEN ELEVEN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Heaven Eleven win~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.546

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Heaven Eleven are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Wologizi 35%, draw 25%, Heaven Eleven 40%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Wologizi v Heaven ElevenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Wologizi win35%

Draw25%

Heaven Eleven win40%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Wologizi

Heaven Eleven

5Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · LFA First Division

Last match: 18 Oct · LFA First Division

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Wologizi	1	0	1
12	Heaven Eleven	1	0	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · heaven eleven winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Heaven Eleven a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Wologizi v Heaven Eleven~~1.41 – 1.53

~~Form · LFA First Division this season · since 17 Oct~~W0 D1 L0 · W0 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 1 v 1~~10 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Wologizi win	35%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Heaven Eleven win	40%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	56%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	34%	–	–
Wologizi or draw	60%	–	–
Wologizi clean sheet	23%	–	–
Heaven Eleven clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 6.1 7.9 6.2 3.2 1 7.3 11.4 8.3 4.3 2 5.3 7.7 5.8 3.0 3 2.6 3.7 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Wologizi down, Heaven Eleven across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,023 LFA First Division matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: LFA First Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Wologizi at home: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Heaven Eleven away: 0.67 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.41 goals for Wologizi, 1.53 for Heaven Eleven. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~WOL 1–0 HEA · HEA 2–1 WOL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · LFA First Division this season · since 17 Oct

WOLOGIZI

D2–2

HEAVEN ELEVEN

D1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Paynesville	2	+2	4
2	NPA Anchors	2	+1	4
3	LISCR	1	+3	3
4	BEA Mountain	1	+2	3
5	Freeport	1	+2	3
6	Discoveries	1	+1	3
7	Fassell	1	+1	3
8	Gardnersville	1	0	1
9	Watanga	1	0	1
10	Wologizi	1	0	1
11	Borough	1	0	1
12	Heaven Eleven	1	0	1
13	Golden Dream	2	−1	1
14	District 17	1	−1	0
15	Black Man Warrior	1	−2	0
16	LPRC Oilers	1	−2	0
17	Downtown	2	−3	0
18	Shaita	1	−3	0