Watanga v BEA Mountain prediction · LFA First Division

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 20:00

Watanga 1–2 BEA Mountain BEA MOUNTAIN WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said BEA Mountain win~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.606

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with BEA Mountain just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Watanga 36%, draw 27%, BEA Mountain 37%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Watanga v BEA MountainBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Watanga win36%

Draw27%

BEA Mountain win37%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Watanga

BEA Mountain

4Days since last match4

Last match: 18 Oct · LFA First Division

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	BEA Mountain	1	+2	3
9	Watanga	1	0	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bea mountain winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · updated 19 Oct 00:15 · locked at kick-off

37% The market–

Us37%

We make BEA Mountain a 37% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Watanga v BEA Mountain~~1.30 – 1.31

~~Form · LFA First Division this season · since 18 Oct~~W0 D1 L0 · W1 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 1 v 3~~9 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · BEA Mountain win

Published at 35%, 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Watanga win	36%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
BEA Mountain win	37%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	48%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Watanga or draw	63%	–	–
Watanga clean sheet	28%	–	–
BEA Mountain clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 8.3 9.3 6.3 2.8 1 9.3 12.5 7.8 3.5 2 6.3 7.8 5.0 2.2 3 2.8 3.5 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Watanga down, BEA Mountain across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,023 LFA First Division matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: LFA First Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Watanga at home: 2.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). BEA Mountain away: 2.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.30 goals for Watanga, 1.31 for BEA Mountain. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~WAT 4–2 BEA · BEA 0–1 WAT · WAT 3–2 BEA · BEA 1–1 WAT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · LFA First Division this season · since 18 Oct

WATANGA

D2–2

BEA MOUNTAIN

W2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Paynesville	2	+2	4
2	NPA Anchors	2	+1	4
3	LISCR	1	+3	3
4	BEA Mountain	1	+2	3
5	Freeport	1	+2	3
6	Discoveries	1	+1	3
7	Fassell	1	+1	3
8	Gardnersville	1	0	1
9	Watanga	1	0	1
10	Wologizi	1	0	1
11	Borough	1	0	1
12	Heaven Eleven	1	0	1
13	Golden Dream	2	−1	1
14	District 17	1	−1	0
15	Black Man Warrior	1	−2	0
16	LPRC Oilers	1	−2	0
17	Downtown	2	−3	0
18	Shaita	1	−3	0