Gardnersville v Borough prediction · LFA First Division

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 20:28

Gardnersville 1–3 Borough GARDNERSVILLE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Gardnersville win~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.643

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Gardnersville are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Gardnersville 42%, draw 23%, Borough 35%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 67%.

The AI’s read on Gardnersville v BoroughBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Gardnersville win42%

Draw23%

Borough win35%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Gardnersville

Borough

4Days since last match4

Last match: 18 Oct · LFA First Division

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Gardnersville	1	0	1
11	Borough	1	0	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · gardnersville winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · updated 19 Oct 00:15 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Gardnersville a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.7, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Gardnersville v Borough~~1.83 – 1.67

~~Form · LFA First Division this season · since 18 Oct~~W0 D1 L0 · W0 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 1 v 1~~8 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Gardnersville win

Published at 41%, 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gardnersville win	42%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Borough win	35%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	67%	–	–
Both teams to score	67%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	86%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	46%	–	–
Gardnersville or draw	65%	–	–
Gardnersville clean sheet	20%	–	–
Borough clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.5%

0123450 3.8 5.0 4.3 2.4 1 5.5 9.5 7.4 4.1 2 5.2 8.1 6.5 3.6 3 3.2 4.9 4.0 2.2 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gardnersville down, Borough across0–5 goals a side shown (97.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,023 LFA First Division matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: LFA First Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gardnersville at home: 2.17 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Borough away: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.83 goals for Gardnersville, 1.67 for Borough. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~BOR 1–1 GAR · GAR 1–1 BOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · LFA First Division this season · since 18 Oct

GARDNERSVILLE

D2–2

BOROUGH

D1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Paynesville	2	+2	4
2	NPA Anchors	2	+1	4
3	LISCR	1	+3	3
4	BEA Mountain	1	+2	3
5	Freeport	1	+2	3
6	Discoveries	1	+1	3
7	Fassell	1	+1	3
8	Gardnersville	1	0	1
9	Watanga	1	0	1
10	Wologizi	1	0	1
11	Borough	1	0	1
12	Heaven Eleven	1	0	1
13	Golden Dream	2	−1	1
14	District 17	1	−1	0
15	Black Man Warrior	1	−2	0
16	LPRC Oilers	1	−2	0
17	Downtown	2	−3	0
18	Shaita	1	−3	0