Freeport v Paynesville prediction · LFA First Division

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

FreeportDrawPaynesville

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Paynesville 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Paynesville are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Freeport 37%, draw 21%, Paynesville 42%. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 72%.

The AI’s read on Freeport v PaynesvilleBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Freeport win37%

Draw21%

Paynesville win42%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Freeport

Paynesville

6Days since last match7

Last match: 22 Oct · LFA First Division

Last match: 21 Oct · LFA First Division

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Freeport	2	+3	6
6	Paynesville	2	+2	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · paynesville winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Paynesville a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–2.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Freeport v Paynesville~~1.90 – 2.02

~~Form · LFA First Division this season · since 18 Oct~~W2 D0 L0 · W1 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 6 v 4~~3 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Freeport win	37%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Paynesville win	42%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	74%	–	–
Both teams to score	72%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	89%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	54%	–	–
Freeport or draw	58%	–	–
Freeport clean sheet	14%	–	–
Paynesville clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 7.9%

0123450 2.6 4.1 4.3 2.8 1 3.8 7.9 7.5 5.0 2.6 2 3.7 7.0 6.8 4.5 2.3 3 2.3 4.4 4.2 2.8 4 2.1 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Freeport down, Paynesville across0–5 goals a side shown (95.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,030 LFA First Division matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: LFA First Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 5.50 goals a meeting; 6 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Freeport at home: 2.00 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Paynesville away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.90 goals for Freeport, 2.02 for Paynesville. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~5.50

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 6

~~Both scored~~6 of 6

~~Last meetings~~FRE 3–3 PAY · PAY 6–2 FRE · PAY 3–2 FRE · FRE 3–1 PAY

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · LFA First Division this season · since 18 Oct

FREEPORT

WW2–0 · 1–0

PAYNESVILLE

DW2–2 · 4–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	BEA Mountain	2	+3	6
2	Fassell	2	+3	6
3	Freeport	2	+3	6
4	Discoveries	2	+2	6
5	Heaven Eleven	2	+3	4
6	Paynesville	2	+2	4
7	Borough	2	+2	4
8	NPA Anchors	2	+1	4
9	LPRC Oilers	2	+3	3
10	LISCR	2	+2	3
11	Golden Dream	2	−1	1
12	Watanga	2	−1	1
13	Gardnersville	2	−2	1
14	Wologizi	2	−3	1
15	Downtown	2	−3	0
16	Shaita	2	−4	0
17	Black Man Warrior	2	−4	0
18	District 17	2	−6	0