Downtown v Heaven Eleven prediction · LFA First Division

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

DowntownDrawHeaven Eleven

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Heaven Eleven 48%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Heaven Eleven are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Downtown 27%, draw 24%, Heaven Eleven 48%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Downtown v Heaven ElevenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Downtown win27%

Draw24%

Heaven Eleven win48%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Downtown

Heaven Eleven

7Days since last match6

Last match: 21 Oct · LFA First Division

Last match: 22 Oct · LFA First Division

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Heaven Eleven	2	+3	4
15	Downtown	2	−3	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · heaven eleven winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · updated 23 Oct 00:11 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Heaven Eleven a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.7, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Downtown v Heaven Eleven~~1.20 – 1.70

~~Form · LFA First Division this season · since 18 Oct~~W0 D0 L2 · W1 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 0 v 4~~15 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Heaven Eleven win

Published at 45%, 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Downtown win	27%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Heaven Eleven win	48%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	55%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	33%	–	–
Downtown or draw	52%	–	–
Downtown clean sheet	19%	–	–
Heaven Eleven clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 6.3 9.3 7.9 4.5 2.0 1 6.5 11.2 9.0 5.1 2.3 2 4.1 6.5 5.4 3.0 3 2.7 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Downtown down, Heaven Eleven across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,030 LFA First Division matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: LFA First Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Downtown at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Heaven Eleven away: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for Downtown, 1.70 for Heaven Eleven. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~HEA 2–2 DOW · DOW 1–2 HEA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · LFA First Division this season · since 18 Oct

DOWNTOWN

LL0–1 · 2–4

HEAVEN ELEVEN

DW1–1 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	BEA Mountain	2	+3	6
2	Fassell	2	+3	6
3	Freeport	2	+3	6
4	Discoveries	2	+2	6
5	Heaven Eleven	2	+3	4
6	Paynesville	2	+2	4
7	Borough	2	+2	4
8	NPA Anchors	2	+1	4
9	LPRC Oilers	2	+3	3
10	LISCR	2	+2	3
11	Golden Dream	2	−1	1
12	Watanga	2	−1	1
13	Gardnersville	2	−2	1
14	Wologizi	2	−3	1
15	Downtown	2	−3	0
16	Shaita	2	−4	0
17	Black Man Warrior	2	−4	0
18	District 17	2	−6	0