Black Man Warrior v LISCR prediction · LFA First Division

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Black Man WarriorDrawLISCR

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · LISCR 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

LISCR are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Black Man Warrior 28%, draw 31%, LISCR 41%. Over 2.5 goals 33%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Black Man Warrior v LISCRBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Black Man Warrior win28%

Draw31%

LISCR win41%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Black Man Warrior

LISCR

6Days since last match6

Last match: 22 Oct · LFA First Division

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	LISCR	2	+2	3
17	Black Man Warrior	2	−4	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · liscr winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make LISCR a 41% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.2, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Black Man Warrior v LISCR~~0.88 – 1.16

~~Form · LFA First Division this season · since 18 Oct~~W0 D0 L2 · W1 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 0 v 3~~17 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · LISCR win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Black Man Warrior win	28%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
LISCR win	41%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	33%	–	–
Both teams to score	40%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	60%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	15%	–	–
Black Man Warrior or draw	59%	–	–
Black Man Warrior clean sheet	32%	–	–
LISCR clean sheet	42%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 14.6%

0123450 14.1 14.6 8.6 3.4 1 11.1 13.0 7.3 2.9 2 5.1 5.7 3.3 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Black Man Warrior down, LISCR across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,030 LFA First Division matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: LFA First Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 2.25 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Black Man Warrior at home: 0.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). LISCR away: 0.67 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.88 goals for Black Man Warrior, 1.16 for LISCR. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~LIS 0–1 BLA · BLA 1–2 LIS · LIS 2–0 BLA · BLA 1–2 LIS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · LFA First Division this season · since 18 Oct

BLACK MAN WARRIOR

LL0–2 · 0–2

LISCR

WL3–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	BEA Mountain	2	+3	6
2	Fassell	2	+3	6
3	Freeport	2	+3	6
4	Discoveries	2	+2	6
5	Heaven Eleven	2	+3	4
6	Paynesville	2	+2	4
7	Borough	2	+2	4
8	NPA Anchors	2	+1	4
9	LPRC Oilers	2	+3	3
10	LISCR	2	+2	3
11	Golden Dream	2	−1	1
12	Watanga	2	−1	1
13	Gardnersville	2	−2	1
14	Wologizi	2	−3	1
15	Downtown	2	−3	0
16	Shaita	2	−4	0
17	Black Man Warrior	2	−4	0
18	District 17	2	−6	0