Black Man Warrior v Fassell prediction · LFA First Division

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 16:01

Black Man Warrior 0–2 Fassell FASSELL WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Fassell win~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.367

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Fassell are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Black Man Warrior 18%, draw 31%, Fassell 51%. Over 2.5 goals 30%, both teams to score 33%.

The AI’s read on Black Man Warrior v FassellBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 09:32 · locked at kick-off

Black Man Warrior win18%

Draw31%

Fassell win51%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Black Man Warrior

Fassell

4Days since last match4

Last match: 18 Oct · LFA First Division

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Fassell	1	+1	3
15	Black Man Warrior	1	−2	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fassell winFirst published 18 Oct 09:32 · locked at kick-off

51% The market–

Us51%

We make Fassell a 51% chance to win. The model expects 0.6–1.3, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 18%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Black Man Warrior v Fassell~~0.63 – 1.27

~~Form · LFA First Division this season · since 18 Oct~~W0 D0 L1 · W1 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 0 v 3~~15 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Fassell win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Black Man Warrior win	18%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
Fassell win	51%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	30%	–	–
Both teams to score	33%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	56%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	13%	–	–
Black Man Warrior or draw	49%	–	–
Black Man Warrior clean sheet	29%	–	–
Fassell clean sheet	54%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 18.5%

0123450 16.2 18.5 11.8 5.1 1 9.0 11.8 7.2 3.1 2 3.0 3.7 2.4 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Black Man Warrior down, Fassell across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,023 LFA First Division matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: LFA First Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Black Man Warrior at home: 0.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Fassell away: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.63 goals for Black Man Warrior, 1.27 for Fassell. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~FAS 1–1 BLA · BLA 0–0 FAS · BLA 1–2 FAS · FAS 2–1 BLA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · LFA First Division this season · since 18 Oct

BLACK MAN WARRIOR

L0–2

FASSELL

W1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Paynesville	2	+2	4
2	NPA Anchors	2	+1	4
3	LISCR	1	+3	3
4	BEA Mountain	1	+2	3
5	Freeport	1	+2	3
6	Discoveries	1	+1	3
7	Fassell	1	+1	3
8	Gardnersville	1	0	1
9	Watanga	1	0	1
10	Wologizi	1	0	1
11	Borough	1	0	1
12	Heaven Eleven	1	0	1
13	Golden Dream	2	−1	1
14	District 17	1	−1	0
15	Black Man Warrior	1	−2	0
16	LPRC Oilers	1	−2	0
17	Downtown	2	−3	0
18	Shaita	1	−3	0