BEA Mountain v Gardnersville prediction · LFA First Division

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

BEA MountainDrawGardnersville

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:30

Before kick-off · Match result · BEA Mountain 72%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

BEA Mountain are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: BEA Mountain 72%, draw 15%, Gardnersville 13%. Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on BEA Mountain v GardnersvilleBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

BEA Mountain win72%

Draw15%

Gardnersville win13%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

BEA Mountain

Gardnersville

3Days since last match3

Last match: 22 Oct · LFA First Division

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bea mountain winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 23 Oct 00:11 · locked at kick-off

72% The market–

Us72%

We make BEA Mountain a 72% chance to win. The model expects 3.0–1.2, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · BEA Mountain v Gardnersville~~3.01 – 1.16

~~Form · LFA First Division this season · since 18 Oct~~W2 D0 L0 · W0 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 6 v 1~~1 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · BEA Mountain win

Published at 70%, 72% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
BEA Mountain win	72%	–	–
Draw	15%	–	–
Gardnersville win	13%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	76%	–	–
Both teams to score	64%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	91%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	58%	–	–
BEA Mountain or draw	87%	–	–
BEA Mountain clean sheet	32%	–	–
Gardnersville clean sheet	6%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.9%

0123450 2.1 2.1 1 5.0 6.0 3.4 2 7.0 7.9 4.6 3 6.6 7.3 4.2 4 4.9 5.3 3.1 5 3.1 3.3

under 2% 5% 12%+BEA Mountain down, Gardnersville across0–5 goals a side shown (89.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,030 LFA First Division matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: LFA First Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

BEA Mountain at home: 3.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Gardnersville away: 0.83 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.01 goals for BEA Mountain, 1.16 for Gardnersville. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~GAR 1–5 BEA · BEA 1–1 GAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · LFA First Division this season · since 18 Oct

BEA MOUNTAIN

WW2–0 · 2–1

GARDNERSVILLE

DL2–2 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	BEA Mountain	2	+3	6
2	Fassell	2	+3	6
3	Freeport	2	+3	6
4	Discoveries	2	+2	6
5	Heaven Eleven	2	+3	4
6	Paynesville	2	+2	4
7	Borough	2	+2	4
8	NPA Anchors	2	+1	4
9	LPRC Oilers	2	+3	3
10	LISCR	2	+2	3
11	Golden Dream	2	−1	1
12	Watanga	2	−1	1
13	Gardnersville	2	−2	1
14	Wologizi	2	−3	1
15	Downtown	2	−3	0
16	Shaita	2	−4	0
17	Black Man Warrior	2	−4	0
18	District 17	2	−6	0