BEA Mountain v Fassell prediction · LFA First Division

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

BEA MountainDrawFassell

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · BEA Mountain 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

BEA Mountain are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: BEA Mountain 40%, draw 27%, Fassell 32%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on BEA Mountain v FassellBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

BEA Mountain win40%

Draw27%

Fassell win32%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

BEA Mountain

Fassell

6Days since last match6

Last match: 22 Oct · LFA First Division

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bea mountain winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · updated 23 Oct 00:11 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make BEA Mountain a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · BEA Mountain v Fassell~~1.35 – 1.18

~~Form · LFA First Division this season · since 18 Oct~~W2 D0 L0 · W2 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 6 v 6~~1 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · BEA Mountain win

Published at 41%, 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
BEA Mountain win	40%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Fassell win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	46%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
BEA Mountain or draw	68%	–	–
BEA Mountain clean sheet	32%	–	–
Fassell clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 8.9 9.2 5.6 2.3 1 10.5 12.6 7.2 2.9 2 7.2 8.1 4.8 3 3.3 3.7 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+BEA Mountain down, Fassell across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,030 LFA First Division matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: LFA First Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 2.25 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

BEA Mountain at home: 3.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Fassell away: 1.83 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.35 goals for BEA Mountain, 1.18 for Fassell. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~FAS 0–1 BEA · BEA 0–0 FAS · FAS 3–2 BEA · BEA 0–3 FAS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · LFA First Division this season · since 18 Oct

BEA MOUNTAIN

WW2–0 · 2–1

FASSELL

WW1–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	BEA Mountain	2	+3	6
2	Fassell	2	+3	6
3	Freeport	2	+3	6
4	Discoveries	2	+2	6
5	Heaven Eleven	2	+3	4
6	Paynesville	2	+2	4
7	Borough	2	+2	4
8	NPA Anchors	2	+1	4
9	LPRC Oilers	2	+3	3
10	LISCR	2	+2	3
11	Golden Dream	2	−1	1
12	Watanga	2	−1	1
13	Gardnersville	2	−2	1
14	Wologizi	2	−3	1
15	Downtown	2	−3	0
16	Shaita	2	−4	0
17	Black Man Warrior	2	−4	0
18	District 17	2	−6	0