SC Villa v Lijabatho prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

SC VillaDrawLijabatho

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Lijabatho 70%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lijabatho are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: SC Villa 9%, draw 21%, Lijabatho 70%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 34%.

The AI’s read on SC Villa v LijabathoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 15:32 · locked at kick-off

SC Villa win9%

Draw21%

Lijabatho win70%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

SC Villa

Lijabatho

3Days since last match7

Last match: 22 Oct · Premier League (Uganda)

Last match: 18 Oct · Premier League (Lesotho)

4Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Lijabatho	7	+14	17
13	SC Villa	7	−6	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lijabatho winFirst published 22 Oct 15:32 · locked at kick-off

70% The market–

Us70%

We make Lijabatho a 70% chance to win. The model expects 0.5–2.0, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · SC Villa v Lijabatho~~0.52 – 2.02

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 4 v 17~~13 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
SC Villa win	9%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Lijabatho win	70%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	46%	–	–
Both teams to score	34%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
SC Villa or draw	30%	–	–
SC Villa clean sheet	15%	–	–
Lijabatho clean sheet	61%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 15.4%

0123450 9.6 15.4 15.1 10.2 5.6 2.71 4.1 8.9 7.4 4.7 2.4 2 2.3 2.1 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+SC Villa down, Lijabatho across0–5 goals a side shown (97.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,016 Premier League matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.6% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2022/23.

Home and away form

SC Villa at home: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 3). Lijabatho away: 1.83 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.52 goals for SC Villa, 2.02 for Lijabatho. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2022/23

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2022/23.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 29 Aug

SC VILLA

LWLLDL0–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–3

LIJABATHO

DDWWWW0–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Matlama	7	+9	18
2	Lijabatho	7	+14	17
3	Bantu	7	+11	16
4	Majantja	7	+4	14
5	Lioli	7	+8	13
6	Linare	7	+3	13
7	Manonyane	8	+3	10
8	LCS	7	+1	10
9	LDF	7	0	10
10	Members	7	−5	8
11	Lifofane	7	−5	7
12	Limkokwing University	7	−3	6
13	SC Villa	7	−6	4
14	Machokha	8	−10	4
15	Mzamane	7	−16	4
16	LMPS	7	−8	2