Matlama v Lijabatho prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 21:30

Matlama 1–3 Lijabatho LIJABATHO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lijabatho win~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.591

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on Matlama v LijabathoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 14:19 · locked at kick-off

Matlama win31%

Draw32%

Lijabatho win37%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 15:00

VenueSetsoto Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Matlama

Lijabatho

4Days since last match3

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Matlama	5	9	15
5	Lijabatho	5	11	11

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lijabatho winFirst published 14 Oct 09:01 · updated 14 Oct 14:19 · locked at kick-off

37% The market–

Us37%

We make Lijabatho a 37% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Matlama v Lijabatho~~1.01 – 1.13

~~Last six in Premier League~~W5 D0 L1 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 15 v 11~~2 v 5

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Matlama win	31%	–	–
Draw	32%	–	–
Lijabatho win	37%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	36%	–	–
Both teams to score	43%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	64%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	17%	–	–
Matlama or draw	63%	–	–
Matlama clean sheet	33%	–	–
Lijabatho clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.0%

0123450 13.4 12.3 7.5 2.9 1 10.8 14.0 7.3 2.8 2 6.0 6.6 3.7 3 2.1 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Matlama down, Lijabatho across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,007 Premier League matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.8% of games this season, across 47 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 1.75 goals a meeting; 1 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Matlama at home: 1.33 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Lijabatho away: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.01 goals for Matlama, 1.13 for Lijabatho. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~1.75

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 8

~~Both scored~~3 of 8

~~Last meetings~~MAT 0–1 LIJ · LIJ 1–1 MAT · MAT 1–1 LIJ · LIJ 1–2 MAT

Form · last six in Premier League

MATLAMA

LWWWWW0–1 · 3–0 · 4–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 2–1

LIJABATHO

WWDDWW1–0 · 8–0 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bantu	6	12	16
2	Matlama	5	9	15
3	Linare	6	5	13
4	Lioli	6	8	12
5	Lijabatho	5	11	11
6	Majantja	6	3	11
7	LCS	6	0	7
8	LDF	6	-2	7
9	Manonyane	6	2	6
10	Limkokwing University	6	-2	6
11	Members	6	-6	5
12	SC Villa	6	-3	4
13	Lifofane	6	-8	4
14	Machokha	6	-8	4
15	Mzamane	6	-14	4
16	LMPS	6	-7	2