Manonyane v Lioli prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 14:51

Manonyane 1–1 Lioli LIOLI WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lioli win~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.893

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lioli are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Manonyane 18%, draw 26%, Lioli 56%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Manonyane v LioliBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 19:01 · locked at kick-off

Manonyane win18%

Draw26%

Lioli win56%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Manonyane

Lioli

7Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · Premier League (Lesotho)

Last match: 10 Oct · Premier League (Lesotho)

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Lioli	6	+8	12
11	Manonyane	6	+2	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lioli winFirst published 15 Oct 19:01 · locked at kick-off

56% The market–

Us56%

We make Lioli a 56% chance to win. The model expects 0.8–1.6, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Manonyane v Lioli~~0.81 – 1.65

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 22 Aug~~W1 D3 L2 · W3 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 6 v 12~~11 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Manonyane win	18%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Lioli win	56%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	44%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Manonyane or draw	44%	–	–
Manonyane clean sheet	20%	–	–
Lioli clean sheet	45%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.3%

0123450 9.8 13.3 11.4 6.3 2.7 1 6.3 11.9 9.0 5.0 2.1 2 2.9 4.6 3.7 2.0 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Manonyane down, Lioli across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,012 Premier League matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.2% of games this season, across 52 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 1.62 goals a meeting; 2 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Manonyane at home: 2.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Lioli away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.81 goals for Manonyane, 1.65 for Lioli. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~1.62

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 8

~~Both scored~~3 of 8

~~Last meetings~~LIO 1–1 MAN · MAN 0–0 LIO · LIO 3–0 MAN · MAN 0–1 LIO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 22 Aug

MANONYANE

DWDDLL3–3 · 4–0 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–1

LIOLI

DWWWDD2–2 · 3–2 · 2–0 · 5–0 · 0–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bantu	6	+12	16
2	Matlama	6	+7	15
3	Lijabatho	6	+13	14
4	Majantja	7	+4	14
5	Linare	6	+5	13
6	Lioli	6	+8	12
7	LCS	7	+1	10
8	Members	7	−5	8
9	LDF	6	−2	7
10	Lifofane	7	−5	7
11	Manonyane	6	+2	6
12	Limkokwing University	7	−3	6
13	SC Villa	7	−6	4
14	Machokha	7	−9	4
15	Mzamane	6	−14	4
16	LMPS	7	−8	2