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Machokha v Mzamane

Machokha

1–1Full time

Mzamane

Premier League · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 14:11

Machokha 1–1 Mzamane MACHOKHA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Machokha win~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.830

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Machokha win52%

Draw28%

Mzamane win20%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 08:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · machokha winPublished 10 Oct 13:47

52% The market–

Us52%

We make Machokha a 52% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Machokha win	52%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Mzamane win	20%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	41%	–	–
Both teams to score	44%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	68%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	21%	–	–
Machokha or draw	80%	–	–
Machokha clean sheet	44%	–	–
Mzamane clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.7%

0123450 11.2 7.3 3.5 1 13.7 12.4 4.9 2 10.8 8.5 3.6 3 5.5 4.3 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Machokha down, Mzamane across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 999 Premier League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.3% of games this season, across 39 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Machokha at home: 0.17 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Mzamane away: 0.17 scored, 3.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for Machokha, 0.83 for Mzamane. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~MZA 2–0 MAC · MAC 1–0 MZA

Form · last six in Premier League

MACHOKHA

LLLLLW0–3 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 0–5 · 2–1

MZAMANE

LLWLLL0–2 · 0–8 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 1–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bantu	5	+8	13
2	Matlama	4	+8	12
3	Lioli	5	+8	11
4	Linare	5	+4	10
5	Majantja	5	+3	10
6	Lijabatho	4	+9	8
7	Manonyane	5	+3	6
8	LCS	5	0	6
9	Limkokwing University	5	−1	6
10	LDF	5	−2	6
11	Members	5	−4	5
12	Lifofane	5	−4	4
13	SC Villa	5	−3	3
14	Machokha	5	−8	3
15	Mzamane	5	−14	3
16	LMPS	5	−7	1