Machokha v Manonyane prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:53

Machokha 2–3 Manonyane MANONYANE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Manonyane win~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.486

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Manonyane are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Machokha 27%, draw 30%, Manonyane 43%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Machokha v ManonyaneBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 15:32 · locked at kick-off

Machokha win27%

Draw30%

Manonyane win43%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Machokha

Manonyane

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Premier League (Lesotho)

Last match: 18 Oct · Premier League (Lesotho)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Manonyane	7	+2	7
14	Machokha	7	−9	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · manonyane winFirst published 22 Oct 15:32 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Manonyane a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Machokha v Manonyane~~0.96 – 1.30

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 4 v 7~~14 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Machokha win	27%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Manonyane win	43%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	39%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	66%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
Machokha or draw	57%	–	–
Machokha clean sheet	28%	–	–
Manonyane clean sheet	39%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%

0123450 11.9 12.5 8.7 3.9 1 9.3 13.5 8.0 3.5 2 5.0 6.1 3.9 3 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Machokha down, Manonyane across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,016 Premier League matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.6% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Machokha at home: 0.33 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Manonyane away: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.96 goals for Machokha, 1.30 for Manonyane. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~MAN 2–1 MAC · MAC 2–0 MAN · MAC 1–2 MAN · MAN 0–1 MAC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 29 Aug

MACHOKHA

LLLWDL0–1 · 1–3 · 0–5 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 0–1

MANONYANE

WDDLLD4–0 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Matlama	7	+9	18
2	Lijabatho	7	+14	17
3	Bantu	7	+11	16
4	Majantja	7	+4	14
5	Lioli	7	+8	13
6	Linare	7	+3	13
7	LCS	7	+1	10
8	LDF	7	0	10
9	Members	7	−5	8
10	Manonyane	7	+2	7
11	Lifofane	7	−5	7
12	Limkokwing University	7	−3	6
13	SC Villa	7	−6	4
14	Machokha	7	−9	4
15	Mzamane	7	−16	4
16	LMPS	7	−8	2