Lioli v Matlama prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Lioli 0–0 Matlama LIOLI WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lioli win~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.701

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Lioli just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Lioli 36%, draw 32%, Matlama 33%. Over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Lioli v MatlamaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 15:32 · locked at kick-off

Lioli win36%

Draw32%

Matlama win33%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lioli

Matlama

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Premier League (Lesotho)

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lioli winFirst published 22 Oct 15:32 · locked at kick-off

36% The market–

Us36%

We make Lioli a 36% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Lioli v Matlama~~1.09 – 1.03

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D3 L0 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 13 v 18~~5 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lioli win	36%	–	–
Draw	32%	–	–
Matlama win	33%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	36%	–	–
Both teams to score	43%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	63%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	17%	–	–
Lioli or draw	67%	–	–
Lioli clean sheet	36%	–	–
Matlama clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.0%

0123450 13.4 11.4 6.4 2.3 1 12.1 14.0 6.7 2.4 2 7.1 7.1 3.7 3 2.6 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lioli down, Matlama across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,016 Premier League matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.6% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 2.38 goals a meeting; 3 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lioli at home: 2.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Matlama away: 1.83 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.09 goals for Lioli, 1.03 for Matlama. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~2.38

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~MAT 1–0 LIO · LIO 1–2 MAT · LIO 3–3 MAT · MAT 1–0 LIO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 29 Aug

LIOLI

WWWDDD3–2 · 2–0 · 5–0 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 1–1

MATLAMA

WWWWLW4–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Matlama	7	+9	18
2	Lijabatho	7	+14	17
3	Bantu	7	+11	16
4	Majantja	7	+4	14
5	Lioli	7	+8	13
6	Linare	7	+3	13
7	LCS	7	+1	10
8	LDF	7	0	10
9	Members	7	−5	8
10	Manonyane	7	+2	7
11	Lifofane	7	−5	7
12	Limkokwing University	7	−3	6
13	SC Villa	7	−6	4
14	Machokha	7	−9	4
15	Mzamane	7	−16	4
16	LMPS	7	−8	2