Tripoli SC v Tadamon Sour prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 15:31

Tripoli SC 1–2 Tadamon Sour TRIPOLI SC WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tripoli SC win~~42%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.795

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.768

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tripoli SC win at 42%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Tripoli SC 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–31–27
1′KICK-OFF Tripoli SC v Tadamon Sour
13′Tadamon Sour find the net on 13′. 0–1. 0–1 · 17–23–60
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Tripoli SC 0–1 Tadamon Sour
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' Tripoli SC win: 42% at kick-off, 17% now
13′THE CALL SWINGS · 13' Tadamon Sour win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Tripoli SC win 40%)
14′We said Tripoli SC at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 16%. 0–1 · 16–23–60
23′🟥 RED CARD · 23' Tripoli SC
24′Tripoli SC are down to ten from 23′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–1 · 14–24–62
24′We said Tripoli SC at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–24–62
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.2 we expected. 0–1 · 13–24–64
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Tripoli SC win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
43′We said Tripoli SC at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–23–67
45′HALF-TIME Tripoli SC 0–1 Tadamon Sour
45′SECOND HALF Tripoli SC 0–1 Tadamon Sour
53′We said Tripoli SC at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–50–21
53′A goal for Tripoli SC on 53′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 29–50–21
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Tripoli SC 1–1 Tadamon Sour
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Tripoli SC win: 42% at kick-off, 29% now
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Tadamon Sour win 71%)
63′We said Tripoli SC at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–58–18
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Tripoli SC win: 42% at kick-off, 22% now
73′🟥 RED CARD · 73' Tadamon Sour
74′Tripoli SC have ten men and Tadamon Sour ten after the red cards. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–1 · 17–71–12
79′We said Tripoli SC at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 1–2 · 1–11–88
79′3 goals already, more than the 2.2 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 1–11–88
79′Tadamon Sour score on 79′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 1–11–88
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Tripoli SC 1–2 Tadamon Sour
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Tripoli SC win: 42% at kick-off, 1% now
79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' Tadamon Sour win is now our likeliest result at 88% (was Draw 77%)
90′1–2 at the end. Our 42% on Tripoli SC misses, and the record keeps it. 1–2 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Tripoli SC 1–2 Tadamon Sour
FTTripoli SC 1–2 Tadamon Sour · Tripoli SC win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tripoli SC are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tripoli SC 42%, draw 31%, Tadamon Sour 27%. Over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Tripoli SC v Tadamon SourBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Tripoli SC win42%

Draw31%

Tadamon Sour win27%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tripoli SC

Tadamon Sour

5Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Premier League (Lebanon)

Last match: 17 Oct · Premier League (Lebanon)

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Tripoli SC	3	+5	7
3	Tadamon Sour	3	+4	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tripoli sc winFirst published 19 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

42% The market43%

Us42%

~~Market~~43%

We make Tripoli SC a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.2–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tripoli SC v Tadamon Sour~~1.22 – 0.93

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 8 Oct~~W2 D1 L0 · W2 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 7 v 7~~2 v 3

~~The market · Tripoli SC win~~43% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Tripoli SC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tripoli SC win	42%	43%	−1
Draw	31%	28%	+3
Tadamon Sour win	27%	29%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	36%	49%	−13
Both teams to score	42%	53%	−11
Over 1.5 goals	63%	71%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	18%	28%	−10
Tripoli SC or draw	73%	71%	+2
Tripoli SC clean sheet	41%	–	–
Tadamon Sour clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 13.4%

0123450 13.4 10.0 5.1 1 13.3 13.3 5.8 2 8.6 7.6 3.5 3 3.6 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tripoli SC down, Tadamon Sour across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 820 Premier League matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.90 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tripoli SC at home: 0.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Tadamon Sour away: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Tripoli SC, 0.93 for Tadamon Sour. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.90

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~TAD 0–1 TRI · TAD 3–0 TRI · TRI 1–1 TAD · TRI 2–0 TAD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 8 Oct

TRIPOLI SC

DWW1–1 · 2–0 · 3–0

TADAMON SOUR

WDW1–0 · 3–3 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Jwaaya FC	3	+7	9
2	Tripoli SC	3	+5	7
3	Tadamon Sour	3	+4	7
4	Safa	2	+4	6
5	Al Ahed	3	+1	5
6	Al Nejmeh	2	+2	4
7	Al Ansar	1	+1	3
8	Al Hikma	3	−4	1
9	Reyady Abaseya	2	−2	0
10	Shabab Al Sahel	2	−4	0
11	Al Akhaa Al Ahli	3	−7	0
12	Al Mabarrah	3	−7	0