Tadamon Sour v Safa prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Tadamon SourDrawSafa

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:15

Before kick-off · Match result · Safa 57%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Safa are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tadamon Sour 19%, draw 25%, Safa 57%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Tadamon Sour v SafaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Tadamon Sour win19%

Draw25%

Safa win57%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 11:15

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tadamon Sour

Safa

7Days since last match6

Last match: 23 Oct · Premier League (Lebanon)

Last match: 24 Oct · Premier League (Lebanon)

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Tadamon Sour	4	+5	10
3	Safa	3	+5	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · safa winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

57% The market–

Us57%

We make Safa a 57% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.7, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tadamon Sour v Safa~~0.87 – 1.73

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 8 Oct~~W3 D1 L0 · W3 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 10 v 9~~2 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tadamon Sour win	19%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Safa win	57%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	48%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Tadamon Sour or draw	43%	–	–
Tadamon Sour clean sheet	19%	–	–
Safa clean sheet	43%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 12.4%

0123450 8.5 12.4 10.9 6.3 2.9 1 6.1 11.5 9.1 5.3 2.4 2 3.0 4.8 4.0 2.3 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tadamon Sour down, Safa across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 825 Premier League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tadamon Sour at home: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Safa away: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.87 goals for Tadamon Sour, 1.73 for Safa. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SAF 2–0 TAD · TAD 1–1 SAF · SAF 5–2 TAD · SAF 3–0 TAD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 8 Oct

TADAMON SOUR

WDWW1–0 · 3–3 · 4–1 · 2–1

SAFA

WWW2–1 · 3–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Jwaaya FC	4	+9	12
2	Tadamon Sour	4	+5	10
3	Safa	3	+5	9
4	Al Ahed	4	+2	8
5	Tripoli SC	4	+4	7
6	Al Nejmeh	2	+2	4
7	Al Ansar	1	+1	3
8	Al Mabarrah	4	−6	3
9	Al Hikma	4	−5	1
10	Reyady Abaseya	3	−3	0
11	Shabab Al Sahel	3	−6	0
12	Al Akhaa Al Ahli	4	−8	0