Shabab Al Sahel v Al Ahed prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Shabab Al SahelDrawAl Ahed

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:15

Before kick-off · Match result · Al Ahed 51%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Ahed are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Shabab Al Sahel 23%, draw 25%, Al Ahed 51%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Shabab Al Sahel v Al AhedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Shabab Al Sahel win23%

Draw25%

Al Ahed win51%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 11:15

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Shabab Al Sahel

Al Ahed

6Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · Premier League (Lebanon)

Last match: 23 Oct · Premier League (Lebanon)

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Al Ahed	4	+2	8
11	Shabab Al Sahel	3	−6	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al ahed winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · updated 25 Oct 00:20 · locked at kick-off

51% The market–

Us51%

We make Al Ahed a 51% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.7, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Shabab Al Sahel v Al Ahed~~1.06 – 1.70

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 8 Oct~~W0 D0 L3 · W2 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 0 v 8~~11 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al Ahed win

Published at 50%, 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Shabab Al Sahel win	23%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Al Ahed win	51%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	52%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
Shabab Al Sahel or draw	49%	–	–
Shabab Al Sahel clean sheet	19%	–	–
Al Ahed clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 7.4 10.3 9.0 5.2 2.3 1 6.4 11.7 9.2 5.2 2.3 2 3.7 5.9 4.8 2.7 3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Shabab Al Sahel down, Al Ahed across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 825 Premier League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 4.10 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Shabab Al Sahel at home: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Al Ahed away: 1.17 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.06 goals for Shabab Al Sahel, 1.70 for Al Ahed. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~4.10

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ALA 4–2 SHA · SHA 2–1 ALA · SHA 1–8 ALA · SHA 0–5 ALA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 8 Oct

SHABAB AL SAHEL

LLL0–1 · 0–3 · 0–2

AL AHED

DWDW1–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Jwaaya FC	4	+9	12
2	Tadamon Sour	4	+5	10
3	Safa	3	+5	9
4	Al Ahed	4	+2	8
5	Tripoli SC	4	+4	7
6	Al Nejmeh	2	+2	4
7	Al Ansar	1	+1	3
8	Al Mabarrah	4	−6	3
9	Al Hikma	4	−5	1
10	Reyady Abaseya	3	−3	0
11	Shabab Al Sahel	3	−6	0
12	Al Akhaa Al Ahli	4	−8	0