Jwaaya FC v Shabab Al Sahel prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 17:24

Jwaaya FC 2–0 Shabab Al Sahel JWAAYA FC WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Jwaaya FC win~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.295

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Jwaaya FC win at 56%.
1′Much as we predicted: Jwaaya FC was 56% before kick-off and our model makes it 56% now. 0–0 · 56–26–18
1′KICK-OFF Jwaaya FC v Shabab Al Sahel
29′Jwaaya FC find the net on 29′. 1–0. 1–0 · 82–14–4
29′We published Jwaaya FC at 56%. Our model now makes it 82%. 1–0 · 82–14–4
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Jwaaya FC 1–0 Shabab Al Sahel
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Jwaaya FC win: 56% at kick-off, 82% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 82–14–4
45′HALF-TIME Jwaaya FC 1–0 Shabab Al Sahel
46′SECOND HALF Jwaaya FC 1–0 Shabab Al Sahel
55′We published Jwaaya FC at 56%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
57′A goal for Jwaaya FC on 57′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
57′We published Jwaaya FC at 56%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Jwaaya FC 2–0 Shabab Al Sahel
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Jwaaya FC win: 56% at kick-off, 98% now
77′We published Jwaaya FC at 56%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Jwaaya FC 2–0 Shabab Al Sahel
FTJwaaya FC 2–0 Shabab Al Sahel · Jwaaya FC win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Jwaaya FC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Jwaaya FC 56%, draw 26%, Shabab Al Sahel 18%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Jwaaya FC v Shabab Al SahelBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Jwaaya FC win56%

Draw26%

Shabab Al Sahel win18%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Jwaaya FC

Shabab Al Sahel

6Days since last match12

Last match: 18 Oct · Premier League (Lebanon)

Last match: 12 Oct · Premier League (Lebanon)

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Jwaaya FC	3	+7	9
10	Shabab Al Sahel	2	−4	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · jwaaya fc winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

56% The market–

Us56%

We make Jwaaya FC a 56% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Jwaaya FC v Shabab Al Sahel~~1.63 – 0.79

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 8 Oct~~W3 D0 L0 · W0 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 9 v 0~~2 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Jwaaya FC win	56%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Shabab Al Sahel win	18%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	43%	–	–
Both teams to score	43%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	69%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	23%	–	–
Jwaaya FC or draw	82%	–	–
Jwaaya FC clean sheet	46%	–	–
Shabab Al Sahel clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.9%

0123450 10.3 6.6 3.0 1 13.9 11.8 4.5 2 11.5 8.7 3.5 3 6.3 4.7 4 2.8 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Jwaaya FC down, Shabab Al Sahel across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 822 Premier League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Jwaaya FC at home: 1.50 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Shabab Al Sahel away: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.63 goals for Jwaaya FC, 0.79 for Shabab Al Sahel. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~JWA 0–0 SHA · SHA 2–0 JWA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 8 Oct

JWAAYA FC

WWW3–0 · 3–0 · 2–1

SHABAB AL SAHEL

LL0–1 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tadamon Sour	4	+5	10
2	Jwaaya FC	3	+7	9
3	Al Ahed	4	+2	8
4	Tripoli SC	4	+4	7
5	Safa	2	+4	6
6	Al Nejmeh	2	+2	4
7	Al Ansar	1	+1	3
8	Al Hikma	3	−4	1
9	Reyady Abaseya	3	−3	0
10	Shabab Al Sahel	2	−4	0
11	Al Akhaa Al Ahli	3	−7	0
12	Al Mabarrah	3	−7	0