Al Hikma v Tripoli SC prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Al HikmaDrawTripoli SC

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Al Hikma 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Hikma are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Hikma 41%, draw 29%, Tripoli SC 30%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Al Hikma v Tripoli SCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Al Hikma win41%

Draw29%

Tripoli SC win30%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Hikma

Tripoli SC

7Days since last match8

Last match: 24 Oct · Premier League (Lebanon)

Last match: 23 Oct · Premier League (Lebanon)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Tripoli SC	4	+4	7
9	Al Hikma	4	−5	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al hikma winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Al Hikma a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al Hikma v Tripoli SC~~1.30 – 1.05

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 8 Oct~~W0 D1 L3 · W2 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 1 v 7~~9 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Hikma win	41%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Tripoli SC win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	41%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	68%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
Al Hikma or draw	70%	–	–
Al Hikma clean sheet	36%	–	–
Tripoli SC clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 11.0 9.6 5.4 1 11.8 13.0 6.5 2.4 2 7.9 7.8 4.1 3 3.6 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Hikma down, Tripoli SC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 825 Premier League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.70 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al Hikma at home: 2.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Tripoli SC away: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.30 goals for Al Hikma, 1.05 for Tripoli SC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.70

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~2 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ALH 1–0 TRI · TRI 1–0 ALH · ALH 0–2 TRI · TRI 1–0 ALH

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 8 Oct

AL HIKMA

LLDL1–2 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 0–1

TRIPOLI SC

DWWL1–1 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Jwaaya FC	4	+9	12
2	Tadamon Sour	4	+5	10
3	Safa	3	+5	9
4	Al Ahed	4	+2	8
5	Tripoli SC	4	+4	7
6	Al Nejmeh	2	+2	4
7	Al Ansar	1	+1	3
8	Al Mabarrah	4	−6	3
9	Al Hikma	4	−5	1
10	Reyady Abaseya	3	−3	0
11	Shabab Al Sahel	3	−6	0
12	Al Akhaa Al Ahli	4	−8	0