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Al Hikma v Al Mabarrah

Al Hikma
0–1Full time
Al Mabarrah

Premier League · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 21:41
Al Hikma 0–1 Al Mabarrah AL HIKMA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Al Hikma win61%
Brier score, this match · lower is better1.148

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 10 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Al Hikma win at 61%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF Al Hikma v Al Mabarrah
  3. 2′Little has changed for our model: Al Hikma 61% before kick-off, 61% now. 0–0 · 61–24–15
  4. 18′Al Mabarrah score on 18′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 30–27–43
  5. 18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Al Hikma 0–1 Al Mabarrah
  6. 18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' Al Hikma win: 61% at kick-off, 30% now
  7. 18′THE CALL SWINGS · 18' Al Mabarrah win is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Al Hikma win 57%)
  8. 19′We said Al Hikma at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–1 · 29–27–44
  9. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 0–1 · 25–28–47
  10. 32′We said Al Hikma at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–28–48
  11. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Al Hikma win: 61% at kick-off, 21% now
  12. 42′We said Al Hikma at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–29–52
  13. 45′HALF-TIME Al Hikma 0–1 Al Mabarrah
  14. 46′SECOND HALF Al Hikma 0–1 Al Mabarrah
  15. 52′We said Al Hikma at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–28–57
  16. 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Al Hikma win: 61% at kick-off, 11% now
  17. 62′We said Al Hikma at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–26–64
  18. 73′We said Al Hikma at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–21–75
  19. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Al Hikma win: 61% at kick-off, 1% now
  20. FTFULL TIME Al Hikma 0–1 Al Mabarrah
  21. FTAl Hikma 0–1 Al Mabarrah · Al Hikma win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Hikma are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Hikma 61%, draw 24%, Al Mabarrah 15%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Al Hikma v Al MabarrahBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Al Hikma win61%
Draw24%
Al Mabarrah win15%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Hikma

Al Mabarrah

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Premier League (Lebanon)

Last match: 18 Oct · Premier League (Lebanon)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
8Al Hikma3−41
11Al Mabarrah3−70

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al hikma winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:15 · locked at kick-off
61% The market–
Us61%

We make Al Hikma a 61% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–0.7, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Al Hikma v Al Mabarrah1.80 – 0.74
Form · Premier League this season · since 8 OctW0 D1 L2 · W0 D0 L3
Table places · points 1 v 08 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
55%60%65% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 18:25
Our probability · Al Hikma win

Published at 59%, 61% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Al Hikma win61%––
Draw24%––
Al Mabarrah win15%––
Over 2.5 goals46%––
Both teams to score42%––
Over 1.5 goals72%––
Over 3.5 goals25%––
Al Hikma or draw85%––
Al Hikma clean sheet49%––
Al Mabarrah clean sheet18%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.7%
0123450 9.2 5.6 2.4 1 13.7 10.8 3.9 2 12.4 8.7 3.3 3 7.5 5.1 4 3.6 2.4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Al Hikma down, Al Mabarrah across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025/26
Goals a meeting3.67
Over 2.52 of 3
Both scored3 of 3
Last meetingsALH 4–2 ALM · ALH 1–1 ALM · ALM 2–1 ALH

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 8 Oct

AL HIKMA

LLD1–2 · 0–3 · 1–1

AL MABARRAH

LLL0–3 · 0–1 · 0–3

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Jwaaya FC4+912
2Tadamon Sour4+510
3Safa3+59
4Al Ahed4+28
5Tripoli SC4+47
6Al Nejmeh2+24
7Al Ansar1+13
8Al Hikma3−41
9Reyady Abaseya3−30
10Shabab Al Sahel3−60
11Al Mabarrah3−70
12Al Akhaa Al Ahli4−80

The competition's standings before kick-off.