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Al Hikma v Al Ahed

Al Hikma
1–1Full time
Al Ahed

Premier League · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28
Al Hikma 1–1 Al Ahed AL AHED WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Al Ahed win48%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.860

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 18 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Al Ahed win at 48%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Al Ahed 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 27–25–48
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Al Hikma v Al Ahed
  4. 33′Little has changed for our model: Al Ahed 48% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 25–33–42
  5. 40′A goal for Al Ahed on 40′. 0–0 · 25–35–40
  6. 41′We said Al Ahed at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 0–1 · 7–18–76
  7. 41′⚽ GOAL · 40' Al Hikma 0–1 Al Ahed
  8. 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Al Ahed win: 48% at kick-off, 76% now
  9. 42′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 0–1 · 7–18–76
  10. 45′HALF-TIME Al Hikma 0–1 Al Ahed
  11. 45′SECOND HALF Al Hikma 0–1 Al Ahed
  12. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Al Ahed win: 48% at kick-off, 78% now
  13. 61′We said Al Ahed at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 4–17–80
  14. 73′We said Al Ahed at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–1 · 2–13–85
  15. 77′We said Al Ahed at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 13–69–19
  16. 77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Al Hikma 1–1 Al Ahed
  17. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Al Ahed win: 48% at kick-off, 19% now
  18. 77′THE CALL SWINGS · 77' Draw is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Al Ahed win 19%)
  19. 78′A goal for Al Hikma on 77′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 12–71–17
  20. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Al Ahed win: 48% at kick-off, 17% now
  21. 81′We said Al Ahed at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 10–77–14
  22. 81′We said Al Ahed at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
  23. 81′GOAL DISALLOWED · 81' Al Hikma
  24. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Al Ahed win: 48% at kick-off, 90% now
  25. 81′THE CALL SWINGS · 81' Al Ahed win is now our likeliest result at 90% (was Draw 9%)
  26. 82′We said Al Ahed at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 0–1 · 0–8–91
  27. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Al Ahed win: 48% at kick-off, 91% now
  28. 87′We said Al Ahed at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
  29. 90′1–1 at the end. Our 48% on Al Ahed misses, and the record keeps it. 1–1 · 0–100–0
  30. 92′We said Al Ahed at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 3–94–4
  31. 92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Al Hikma 1–1 Al Ahed
  32. 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+2' Al Ahed win: 48% at kick-off, 4% now
  33. 92′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+2' Draw is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Al Ahed win 4%)
  34. 93′A goal for Al Hikma on 90′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 2–95–3
  35. FTFULL TIME Al Hikma 1–1 Al Ahed
  36. FTAl Hikma 1–1 Al Ahed · Al Ahed win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Ahed are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Hikma 27%, draw 25%, Al Ahed 48%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Al Hikma v Al AhedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Al Hikma win27%
Draw25%
Al Ahed win48%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Hikma

Al Ahed

4Days since last match4

Last match: 13 Oct · Premier League (Lebanon)

Last match: 13 Oct · Premier League (Lebanon)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
6Al Ahed2+14
9Al Hikma2−40

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al ahed winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 14 Oct 04:44 · locked at kick-off
48% The market–
Us48%

We make Al Ahed a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.7, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Al Hikma v Al Ahed1.19 – 1.69
Form · Premier League this season · since 8 OctW0 D0 L2 · W1 D1 L0
Table places · points 0 v 49 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50% 11 OCT 04:0417 OCT 14:10
Our probability · Al Ahed win

Published at 47%, 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Al Hikma win27%––
Draw25%––
Al Ahed win48%––
Over 2.5 goals54%––
Both teams to score56%––
Over 1.5 goals78%––
Over 3.5 goals33%––
Al Hikma or draw52%––
Al Hikma clean sheet19%––
Al Ahed clean sheet31%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%
0123450 6.8 9.0 7.9 4.5 1 6.2 11.7 9.1 5.1 2.2 2 4.1 6.5 5.3 3.0 3 2.6 2.2 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Al Hikma down, Al Ahed across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting2.90
Over 2.57 of 10
Both scored7 of 10
Last meetingsALA 1–0 ALH · ALA 0–0 ALH · ALH 1–3 ALA · ALH 3–1 ALA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 8 Oct

AL HIKMA

LL1–2 · 0–3

AL AHED

DW1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Jwaaya FC2+66
2Safa2+46
3Al Nejmeh2+24
4Tripoli SC2+24
5Tadamon Sour2+14
6Al Ahed2+14
7Al Ansar1+13
8Reyady Abaseya1−10
9Al Hikma2−40
10Al Mabarrah2−40
11Shabab Al Sahel2−40
12Al Akhaa Al Ahli2−40

The competition's standings before kick-off.