Al Akhaa Al Ahli v Safa prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

Al Akhaa Al Ahli 1–2 Safa SAFA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Safa win~~70%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.132

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Safa win at 70%.
1′Much as we predicted: Safa was 70% before kick-off and our model makes it 70% now. 0–0 · 12–18–70
1′KICK-OFF Al Akhaa Al Ahli v Safa
13′A goal for Al Akhaa Al Ahli on 13′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 32–22–45
13′We said Safa at 70%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 45%. 1–0 · 32–22–45
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Al Akhaa Al Ahli 1–0 Safa
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' Safa win: 70% at kick-off, 45% now
16′We said Safa at 70%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 1–0 · 33–23–44
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Safa win: 70% at kick-off, 40% now
27′We said Safa at 70%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 1–0 · 36–25–39
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.3 we expected. 1–0 · 37–25–37
36′We said Safa at 70%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–0 · 39–26–34
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Al Akhaa Al Ahli win is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Safa win 38%)
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Safa win: 70% at kick-off, 30% now
44′We said Safa at 70%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–0 · 43–28–29
45′HALF-TIME Al Akhaa Al Ahli 1–0 Safa
46′SECOND HALF Al Akhaa Al Ahli 1–0 Safa
52′We said Safa at 70%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–0 · 47–29–24
53′Safa score on 53′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 12–36–52
53′We said Safa at 70%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 52%. 1–1 · 12–36–52
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Al Akhaa Al Ahli 1–1 Safa
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Safa win: 70% at kick-off, 52% now
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Safa win is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Al Akhaa Al Ahli win 47%)
65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Safa win 45%)
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Safa win: 70% at kick-off, 40% now
75′Safa find the net on 75′. 1–2. 1–2 · 1–8–92
75′We published Safa at 70%. Our model now makes it 92%. 1–2 · 1–8–92
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Al Akhaa Al Ahli 1–2 Safa
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Safa win: 70% at kick-off, 92% now
75′THE CALL SWINGS · 75' Safa win is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Draw 59%)
82′We published Safa at 70%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
FTFULL TIME Al Akhaa Al Ahli 1–2 Safa
FTAl Akhaa Al Ahli 1–2 Safa · Safa win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Safa are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Akhaa Al Ahli 12%, draw 18%, Safa 70%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Al Akhaa Al Ahli v SafaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Al Akhaa Al Ahli win12%

Draw18%

Safa win70%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Akhaa Al Ahli

Safa

7Days since last match12

Last match: 17 Oct · Premier League (Lebanon)

Last match: 12 Oct · Premier League (Lebanon)

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Safa	2	+4	6
11	Al Akhaa Al Ahli	3	−7	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · safa winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

70% The market–

Us70%

We make Safa a 70% chance to win. The model expects 0.8–2.6, and 0–2 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al Akhaa Al Ahli v Safa~~0.76 – 2.57

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 8 Oct~~W0 D0 L3 · W2 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 0 v 6~~11 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Akhaa Al Ahli win	12%	–	–
Draw	18%	–	–
Safa win	70%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	61%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	81%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	41%	–	–
Al Akhaa Al Ahli or draw	30%	–	–
Al Akhaa Al Ahli clean sheet	12%	–	–
Safa clean sheet	48%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 10.7%

0123450 5.5 9.5 10.7 8.5 5.7 3.51 3.6 8.1 7.8 5.8 3.6 2.12 3.3 3.2 2.3 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Akhaa Al Ahli down, Safa across0–5 goals a side shown (91.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 822 Premier League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2020/21 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al Akhaa Al Ahli at home: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Safa away: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.76 goals for Al Akhaa Al Ahli, 2.57 for Safa. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2020/21

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~3 of 8

~~Last meetings~~ALA 2–2 SAF · SAF 1–0 ALA · ALA 1–3 SAF · SAF 4–0 ALA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 8 Oct

AL AKHAA AL AHLI

LLL0–2 · 0–2 · 1–4

SAFA

WW2–1 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tadamon Sour	4	+5	10
2	Jwaaya FC	3	+7	9
3	Al Ahed	4	+2	8
4	Tripoli SC	4	+4	7
5	Safa	2	+4	6
6	Al Nejmeh	2	+2	4
7	Al Ansar	1	+1	3
8	Al Hikma	3	−4	1
9	Reyady Abaseya	3	−3	0
10	Shabab Al Sahel	2	−4	0
11	Al Akhaa Al Ahli	3	−7	0
12	Al Mabarrah	3	−7	0