Al Ahed v Reyady Abaseya prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 18:31

Al Ahed 1–0 Reyady Abaseya AL AHED WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Al Ahed win~~59%

~~The market said~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.253

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.237

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al Ahed win at 59%.
1′KICK-OFF Al Ahed v Reyady Abaseya
2′Much as we predicted: Al Ahed was 59% before kick-off and our model makes it 59% now. 0–0 · 59–24–17
37′A red card for Al Ahed on 36′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 49–33–18
37′🟥 RED CARD · 36' Al Ahed
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Al Ahed win: 59% at kick-off, 49% now
42′We said Al Ahed at 59%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 47%. 0–0 · 47–35–17
45′HALF-TIME Al Ahed 0–0 Reyady Abaseya
46′SECOND HALF Al Ahed 0–0 Reyady Abaseya
48′We said Al Ahed at 59%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–39–17
54′Al Ahed score on 53′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 84–13–3
54′We published Al Ahed at 59%. Our model now makes it 84%. 1–0 · 84–13–3
54′⚽ GOAL · 53' Al Ahed 1–0 Reyady Abaseya
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Al Ahed win: 59% at kick-off, 84% now
59′We published Al Ahed at 59%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Al Ahed win: 59% at kick-off, 89% now
75′We published Al Ahed at 59%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
84′We published Al Ahed at 59%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+3' Al Ahed win: 59% at kick-off, 99% now
FTFULL TIME Al Ahed 1–0 Reyady Abaseya
FTAl Ahed 1–0 Reyady Abaseya · Al Ahed win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Ahed are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Ahed 59%, draw 23%, Reyady Abaseya 17%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Al Ahed v Reyady AbaseyaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Al Ahed win59%

Draw23%

Reyady Abaseya win17%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 4

VenueBeirut Municipal Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Ahed

Reyady Abaseya

6Days since last match5

Last match: 17 Oct · Premier League (Lebanon)

Last match: 18 Oct · Premier League (Lebanon)

3Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Al Ahed	3	+1	5
9	Reyady Abaseya	2	−2	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al ahed winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

59% The market60%

Us59%

~~Market~~60%

We make Al Ahed a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.9–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al Ahed v Reyady Abaseya~~1.89 – 0.90

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 8 Oct~~W1 D2 L0 · W0 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 5 v 0~~5 v 9

~~The market · Al Ahed win~~60% · ours 59%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al Ahed win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 60% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Ahed win	59%	60%	−1
Draw	23%	23%	0
Reyady Abaseya win	17%	17%	0
Over 2.5 goals	52%	57%	−5
Both teams to score	50%	54%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	77%	78%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	31%	36%	−5
Al Ahed or draw	83%	83%	0
Al Ahed clean sheet	41%	–	–
Reyady Abaseya clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.0%

0123450 7.3 5.1 2.7 1 11.0 10.9 4.7 2 10.7 9.3 4.2 3 6.7 5.8 2.6 4 3.3 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Ahed down, Reyady Abaseya across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 820 Premier League matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 2.25 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al Ahed at home: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Reyady Abaseya away: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.89 goals for Al Ahed, 0.90 for Reyady Abaseya. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ALA 0–1 REY · ALA 1–0 REY · REY 0–3 ALA · REY 1–3 ALA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 8 Oct

AL AHED

DWD1–1 · 1–0 · 1–1

REYADY ABASEYA

LL1–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Jwaaya FC	3	+7	9
2	Tripoli SC	3	+5	7
3	Tadamon Sour	3	+4	7
4	Safa	2	+4	6
5	Al Ahed	3	+1	5
6	Al Nejmeh	2	+2	4
7	Al Ansar	1	+1	3
8	Al Hikma	3	−4	1
9	Reyady Abaseya	2	−2	0
10	Shabab Al Sahel	2	−4	0
11	Al Akhaa Al Ahli	3	−7	0
12	Al Mabarrah	3	−7	0