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Tukums v Riga

Tukums

0–2Full time

Riga

Virsliga · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 14:35

Tukums 0–2 Riga RIGA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG0–2 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Riga win~~77%

~~The market said~~78%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.084

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.076

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Riga win at 77%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Riga 77% before kick-off, 77% now. 0–0 · 9–14–77
1′KICK-OFF Tukums v Riga
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Tukums 0–1 Riga
8′⚽ GOAL · 9' Tukums 0–1 Riga · Reginaldo Ramires
9′PENALTY MISSED · 9' Reginaldo Ramires · Riga
11′🟨 YELLOW · 11' D. Valmiers · Tukums
18′🟨 YELLOW · 11' D. Valmiers · Tukums
21′9′ and it is 0–1: Reginaldo Ramires on the scoresheet for Riga. 0–1 · 3–8–89
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Riga win: 77% at kick-off, 89% now
29′🟨 YELLOW · 25' K. Dislers · Tukums
29′🟨 YELLOW · 30' A. Ankrah · Riga
44′🟨 YELLOW · 45' A. Salazar · Riga
45′SECOND HALF Tukums 0–1 Riga
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Riga · On: R. Aouani · Off: Caio Ferreira
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Tukums · On: R. Melkis · Off: D. Valmiers
54′🟨 YELLOW · 54' R. Deruzinskis · Tukums
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Riga · On: M. Badamosi · Off: Reginaldo Ramires
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Tukums 0–2 Riga · Reginaldo Ramires
61′⚽ GOAL · 62' Tukums 0–2 Riga · M. Badamosi
66′Riga ahead on 62′ through M. Badamosi. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–99
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Riga win: 77% at kick-off, 99% now
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Tukums · On: H. Joksts · Off: J. Toba
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Tukums · On: K. Shigema · Off: M. Stals
70′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Riga · On: R. Jurkovskis · Off: M. Tonisevs
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Riga · On: C. Saco · Off: A. Ankrah
78′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Tukums · On: E. Sprukts · Off: K. Klavins
79′🟨 YELLOW · 80' S. Oulad M'Hand · Riga
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Riga · On: A. Taiwo · Off: S. Oulad M'Hand
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Tukums 0–3 Riga · M. Badamosi
85′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Tukums · On: D. Kaira · Off: M. Derkach
86′We said Riga at 77% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 100%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
93′🟨 YELLOW · 93' Iago Siqueira · Riga
FTFULL TIME Tukums 0–2 Riga
FTTukums 0–2 Riga · Riga win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 0–2 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Tukums win10%

Draw14%

Riga win77%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 12:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Tukums

3-5-2

12 A. Kuprins

88 M. Stals

6 K. Volkovs

8 R. Reingolcs

16 K. Klavins

10 B. Samoilovs

5 J. Toba

4 Anmanis Kaspars

21 D. Valmiers

17 M. Derkach

27 R. Deruzinskis

Coach · Kristaps Dislers

Substitutes

35 · M. Velika

28 · R. Melkis

30 · M. Susts

25 · H. Joksts

29 · K. Shigema

18 · D. Calbergs

31 · D. Kaira

19 · D. Radzenieks

22 · E. Sprukts

Riga

4-2-3-1

12 K. Piric

23 M. Tonisevs

34 A. Cernomordijs

5 K. Wassom

17 A. Salazar

40 A. Ankrah

8 Iago Siqueira

99 Caio Ferreira

18 S. Oulad M'Hand

22 M. Diop

10 Reginaldo Ramires

Coach · Adrian Gula

Substitutes

91 · F. Orols

13 · R. Jurkovskis

3 · Abner

28 · E. Maurs-Boks

6 · C. Saco

25 · A. Taiwo

19 · M. Badamosi

7 · R. Aouani

15 · S. L. Robalo Pedro

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Tukums

3-5-2

12 A. Kuprins

88 M. Stals

6 K. Volkovs

8 R. Reingolcs

16 K. Klavins

10 B. Samoilovs

5 J. Toba

4 Anmanis Kaspars

21 D. Valmiers

17 M. Derkach

27 R. Deruzinskis

Coach · Kristaps Dislers

Substitutes

35 · M. Velika

28 · R. Melkis

30 · M. Susts

25 · H. Joksts

29 · K. Shigema

18 · D. Calbergs

31 · D. Kaira

19 · D. Radzenieks

22 · E. Sprukts

Riga

4-2-3-1

12 K. Piric

23 M. Tonisevs

34 A. Cernomordijs

5 K. Wassom

17 A. Salazar

40 A. Ankrah

8 Iago Siqueira

99 Caio Ferreira

18 S. Oulad M'Hand

22 M. Diop

10 Reginaldo Ramires

Coach · Adrian Gula

Substitutes

91 · F. Orols

13 · R. Jurkovskis

3 · Abner

28 · E. Maurs-Boks

6 · C. Saco

25 · A. Taiwo

19 · M. Badamosi

7 · R. Aouani

15 · S. L. Robalo Pedro

Our number · riga winPublished 10 Oct 12:19

77% The market78%

Us77%

~~Market~~78%

We make Riga a 77% chance to win. The market has them at 78%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 0.9–2.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · riga win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 73% to 78% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tukums win	10%	8%	+1
Draw	14%	14%	0
Riga win	77%	78%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	72%	72%	+1
Both teams to score	56%	54%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	89%	87%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	52%	52%	0
Tukums or draw	23%	22%	+1
Tukums clean sheet	6%	–	–
Riga clean sheet	40%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 9.3%

0123450 2.5 6.6 9.3 8.8 6.3 3.71 2.1 6.2 8.4 7.9 5.6 3.32 2.8 3.9 3.6 2.6 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tukums down, Riga across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 993 Virsliga matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Virsliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.6% of games this season, across 154 played.

Head to head

19 previous meetings, 3.63 goals a meeting; 13 of 19 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tukums at home: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Riga away: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.92 goals for Tukums, 2.86 for Riga. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

19 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.63

~~Over 2.5~~13 of 19

~~Both scored~~7 of 19

~~Last meetings~~RIG 3–1 TUK · TUK 1–3 RIG · RIG 3–3 TUK · RIG 0–0 TUK

Form · last six in Virsliga

TUKUMS

LLLWLD0–2 · 0–3 · 1–4 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–1

RIGA

DLDDWW3–3 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rīgas FS	30	+49	74
2	Riga	31	+56	73
3	Auda	31	+19	61
4	FK Liepaja	31	−2	43
5	BFC Daugavpils	31	0	39
6	Super Nova	30	−11	35
7	FS Jelgava	31	−17	32
8	Grobiņa	31	−31	26
9	Tukums	31	−17	24
10	Ogre United	31	−46	18