Super Nova v Rīgas FS prediction · Virsliga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Super NovaDrawRīgas FS

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Rīgas FS 71%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Rīgas FS are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Super Nova 11%, draw 18%, Rīgas FS 71%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Super Nova v Rīgas FSBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Super Nova win11%

Draw18%

Rīgas FS win71%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 34

VenueJana Skredela stadions

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Super Nova

Rīgas FS

7Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Virsliga

Last match: 19 Oct · Virsliga

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rīgas fs winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 22 Oct 04:02 · locked at kick-off

71% The market79%

Us71%

~~Market~~79%

We make Rīgas FS a 71% chance to win. The market has them at 79%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.8–2.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Super Nova v Rīgas FS~~0.77 – 2.30

~~Form · last six in Virsliga this season · since 7 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 38 v 83~~6 v 1

~~The market · Rīgas FS win~~79% · ours 71%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Rīgas FS win The market, margin stripped

Published at 72%, 71% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 79% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Super Nova win	11%	7%	+4
Draw	18%	14%	+4
Rīgas FS win	71%	79%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	59%	64%	−5
Both teams to score	48%	44%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	81%	82%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	37%	44%	−7
Super Nova or draw	29%	21%	+8
Super Nova clean sheet	10%	–	–
Rīgas FS clean sheet	47%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 12.2%

0123450 5.0 10.6 12.2 9.3 5.4 2.61 3.5 8.3 9.2 7.0 4.1 2 3.2 3.6 2.7 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Super Nova down, Rīgas FS across0–5 goals a side shown (96.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,005 Virsliga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Virsliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.2% of games this season, across 166 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.40 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Super Nova at home: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Rīgas FS away: 1.67 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.77 goals for Super Nova, 2.30 for Rīgas FS. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.40

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~RIG 4–0 SUP · SUP 0–1 RIG · SUP 1–2 RIG · RIG 2–0 SUP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Virsliga this season · since 7 Sept

SUPER NOVA

WLLWLL1–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 0–4 · 1–2

RĪGAS FS

DWDWWW0–0 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 4–2 · 4–0 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rīgas FS	33	+57	83
2	Riga	33	+59	79
3	Auda	33	+19	64
4	FK Liepaja	34	0	47
5	BFC Daugavpils	33	+2	45
6	Super Nova	33	−15	38
7	FS Jelgava	33	−22	32
8	Grobiņa	33	−31	29
9	Tukums	34	−21	25
10	Ogre United	33	−48	18