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Super Nova v Grobiņa

Super Nova

2–1Full time

Grobiņa

Virsliga · SAT 10 OCT · Jana Skredela stadions

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:30

Super Nova 2–1 Grobiņa SUPER NOVA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Super Nova win~~48%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.409

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.565

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 34 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Super Nova win at 48%.
3′6′ and it is 0–0: M. Oss on the scoresheet for Super Nova. 0–0 · 48–29–24
3′KICK-OFF Super Nova v Grobiņa
6′🟨 YELLOW · 4' I. Tyshchenko · Grobiņa
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Super Nova 1–0 Grobiņa · M. Oss (assist R. Sitjakovs)
9′🟥 RED CARD · 9' Super Nova
9′🟨 YELLOW · 10' I. Tyshchenko · Grobiņa
9′🟥 RED CARD · 10' I. Tyshchenko · Grobiņa
20′SUBSTITUTION · 20' Grobiņa · On: J. Ribeiro · Off: H. Yamada
21′SUBSTITUTION · 20' Grobiņa · On: J. Ribeiro · Off: H. Yamada
23′A red card for Grobiņa on 10′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–0 · 77–17–6
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Super Nova win: 48% at kick-off, 77% now
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Super Nova 1–1 Grobiņa · M. Oss
30′⚽ GOAL · 29' Super Nova 1–1 Grobiņa · M. Corryn
34′🟨 YELLOW · 33' M. Oss · Super Nova
42′🟨 YELLOW · 4' I. Tyshchenko · Grobiņa
42′⚽ GOAL · 6' Super Nova 1–1 Grobiņa · M. Oss (assist R. Sitjakovs)
42′🟨 YELLOW · 10' I. Tyshchenko · Grobiņa
42′🟥 RED CARD · 10' I. Tyshchenko · Grobiņa
42′🟨 YELLOW · 19' K. Romanovs · Super Nova
42′SUBSTITUTION · 20' Grobiņa · On: J. Ribeiro · Off: H. Yamada
42′⚽ GOAL · 29' Super Nova 1–1 Grobiņa · M. Corryn
42′🟨 YELLOW · 33' M. Oss · Super Nova
44′Grobiņa ahead on 29′ through M. Corryn. 1–1. 1–1 · 36–43–20
45′Grobiņa ahead on 29′ through M. Corryn. 1–1. 1–1 · 36–44–20
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Super Nova win: 48% at kick-off, 36% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Super Nova win 36%)
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Grobiņa · On: Dodo · Off: A. Kholod
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Grobiņa · On: O. Olatunde-Matthew · Off: A. Baydal
48′SECOND HALF Super Nova 1–1 Grobiņa
51′We said Super Nova at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 1–1 · 33–48–19
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Super Nova · On: A. Glaudans · Off: Bamba
71′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Super Nova · On: N. Pathe · Off: R. Kirss
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Super Nova · On: M. Tihonovics · Off: I. Patrikejevs
81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Grobiņa · On: M. Sidorovs · Off: M. Corryn
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Super Nova 2–1 Grobiņa · M. Corryn
87′⚽ GOAL · 85' Super Nova 2–1 Grobiņa · R. Sitjakovs (assist N. Pathe)
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Grobiņa · On: A. Puzirevskis · Off: J. Ribeiro Corrected
90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' V. Lizunovs · Super Nova
FTFULL TIME Super Nova 2–1 Grobiņa
FTSuper Nova 2–1 Grobiņa · Super Nova win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Super Nova win48%

Draw29%

Grobiņa win24%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:00

Venue · Jana Skredela stadions

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Super Nova

4-1-4-1

90 D. Veisbuks

5 J. Cirulis

25 M. Oss

16 K. Romanovs

3 R. Iida

24 R. Sitjakovs

15 R. Kirss

8 I. Patrikejevs

6 E. Emsis

9 Bamba

10 V. Lizunovs

Coach · Maksims Rafalskis

Substitutes

31 · V. Pipcans

2 · K. Augusts

27 · N. Pathe

20 · I. Ndiaye

21 · M. Tihonovics

22 · K. Skadmanis

7 · A. Glaudans

29 · A. Baghdasaryan

Grobiņa

4-4-2

21 R. Ozols

11 O. Rascevskis

15 A. Jovanovic

5 G. Leitans

27 R. Baravykas

9 A. Kholod

3 D. Druzinins

88 I. Tyshchenko

80 A. Baydal

6 M. Corryn

20 H. Yamada

Coach · Oskars Klava

Substitutes

1 · V. Kudrjavcevs

14 · M. Sidorovs

2 · K. Rupeiks

32 · G. Kluskins

87 · J. Ribeiro

8 · O. Olatunde-Matthew

99 · A. Puzirevskis

13 · A. Aruna

77 · Dodo

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Super Nova

4-1-4-1

90 D. Veisbuks

5 J. Cirulis

25 M. Oss

16 K. Romanovs

3 R. Iida

24 R. Sitjakovs

15 R. Kirss

8 I. Patrikejevs

6 E. Emsis

9 Bamba

10 V. Lizunovs

Coach · Maksims Rafalskis

Substitutes

31 · V. Pipcans

2 · K. Augusts

27 · N. Pathe

20 · I. Ndiaye

21 · M. Tihonovics

22 · K. Skadmanis

7 · A. Glaudans

29 · A. Baghdasaryan

Grobiņa

4-4-2

21 R. Ozols

11 O. Rascevskis

15 A. Jovanovic

5 G. Leitans

27 R. Baravykas

9 A. Kholod

3 D. Druzinins

88 I. Tyshchenko

80 A. Baydal

6 M. Corryn

20 H. Yamada

Coach · Oskars Klava

Substitutes

1 · V. Kudrjavcevs

14 · M. Sidorovs

2 · K. Rupeiks

32 · G. Kluskins

87 · J. Ribeiro

8 · O. Olatunde-Matthew

99 · A. Puzirevskis

13 · A. Aruna

77 · Dodo

Our number · super nova winPublished 10 Oct 14:16

48% The market39%

Us48%

~~Market~~39%

We make Super Nova a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · super nova win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 38% to 39% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Super Nova win	48%	39%	+9
Draw	29%	29%	−1
Grobiņa win	24%	32%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	37%	44%	−7
Both teams to score	42%	50%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	64%	68%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	18%	25%	−7
Super Nova or draw	76%	68%	+8
Super Nova clean sheet	43%	–	–
Grobiņa clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.9%

0123450 11.8 9.4 4.1 1 14.9 12.7 5.3 2 10.0 8.3 3.5 3 4.5 3.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Super Nova down, Grobiņa across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 993 Virsliga matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Virsliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.6% of games this season, across 154 played.

Head to head

7 previous meetings, 1.29 goals a meeting; 0 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Super Nova at home: 0.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Grobiņa away: 0.50 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.33 goals for Super Nova, 0.84 for Grobiņa. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~1.29

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 7

~~Both scored~~2 of 7

~~Last meetings~~SUP 2–0 GRO · GRO 0–2 SUP · GRO 0–1 SUP · GRO 0–0 SUP

Form · last six in Virsliga

SUPER NOVA

DDWWLL0–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–1

GROBIŅA

LLWLDD1–6 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rīgas FS	30	+49	74
2	Riga	31	+56	73
3	Auda	31	+19	61
4	FK Liepaja	31	−2	43
5	BFC Daugavpils	31	0	39
6	Super Nova	30	−11	35
7	FS Jelgava	31	−17	32
8	Grobiņa	31	−31	26
9	Tukums	31	−17	24
10	Ogre United	31	−46	18