

Rīgas FS v Tukums
Rīgas FS
TukumsVirsliga · MON 19 OCT · Stadions Arkadija
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Rīgas FS win at 87%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Rīgas FS 87% before kick-off, 87% now. 0–0 · 87–9–5
- 1′KICK-OFF Rīgas FS v Tukums
- 17′A goal for Rīgas FS on 17′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 94–4–1
- 17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Rīgas FS 1–0 Tukums
- 17′GOAL DISALLOWED · 17' Rīgas FS
- 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Rīgas FS win: 87% at kick-off, 77% now
- 38′We said Rīgas FS at 87%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 75%. 0–0 · 75–18–7
- 40′We said Rīgas FS at 87%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 74%. 0–0 · 74–19–7
- 45′Rīgas FS have had 7 attempts to 1 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 72–21–7
- 45′HALF-TIME Rīgas FS 0–0 Tukums
- 46′SECOND HALF Rīgas FS 0–0 Tukums
- 49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Rīgas FS · Rīgas FS
- 50′We said Rīgas FS at 87%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 68%. 0–0 · 68–24–8
- 52′Rīgas FS have had 9 attempts to 3 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 67–25–8
- 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Rīgas FS win: 87% at kick-off, 67% now
- 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 4.3 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 65–27–8
- 56′We said Rīgas FS at 87%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 64%. 0–0 · 64–28–8
- 59′12 shots for Rīgas FS, 3 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 61–31–8
- 61′We said Rīgas FS at 87%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 59%. 0–0 · 59–33–8
- 62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Rīgas FS · On: martins kigurs · Off: Rostand Ndjiki
- 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Rīgas FS win: 87% at kick-off, 57% now
- 66′We said Rīgas FS at 87%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 54%. 0–0 · 54–38–8
- 68′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Darko Lemajić · Rīgas FS
- 70′We said Rīgas FS at 87%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–44–8
- 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Rīgas FS win: 87% at kick-off, 47% now
- 72′Rīgas FS have had 17 attempts to 3 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 46–47–7
- 72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Tukums · On: rudolfs melkis · Off: Daniels radzenieks
- 73′We said Rīgas FS at 87%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–49–7
- 73′THE CALL SWINGS · 73' Draw is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Rīgas FS win 47%)
- 76′We said Rīgas FS at 87%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–55–7
- 77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Rīgas FS 1–0 Tukums
- 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Rīgas FS win: 87% at kick-off, 94% now
- 77′THE CALL SWINGS · 77' Rīgas FS win is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Draw 55%)
- 79′martins kigurs scores for Rīgas FS on 76′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 94–6–0
- 84′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Tukums · On: Shun Shibata · Off: Koyo Shigema
- 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Rīgas FS win: 87% at kick-off, 97% now
- 89′We said Rīgas FS at 87% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
- 89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Rīgas FS 2–0 Tukums
- 90′88′: martins kigurs on the scoresheet for Rīgas FS, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
- FTFULL TIME Rīgas FS 2–0 Tukums
- FTRīgas FS 2–0 Tukums · Rīgas FS win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 3–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Rīgas FS are clear favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Rīgas FS 87%, draw 9%, Tukums 5%. Over 2.5 goals 80%, both teams to score 51%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off
Rīgas FS win87%
Tukums win5%Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 17:00
RoundMatchday 33
VenueStadions Arkadija
Match timeline
All events
Rīgas FSMIN
TukumsEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rīgas FS
4-2-3-1
Tukums
5-3-2
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Rīgas FS
Tukums
Last match: 15 Oct · Virsliga
Last match: 10 Oct · Virsliga
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Rīgas FS
4-2-3-1
16 J. Ņerugals
11 R. Savaļnieks
23 H. Prenga
43 Ž. Lipušček
6 A. Filipović
26 S. Panić
66 M. Saidy
19 Alfa Baldé
10 J. Ikaunieks
8 L. Odisharia
15 R. Ndjiki
Coach · V. Morozs
Substitutes
5 · N. Sliede
21 · N. Dusalijevs
49 · M. Ķigurs
9 · Duje Korač
17 · C. Kouadio
99 · S. Kumater
22 · D. Lemajić
1 · R. Matrevics
30 · H. Njie
Tukums
5-3-2
12 A. Kuprins
16 Kristaps Klavins
6 K. Volkovs
25 H. Joksts
88 M. Štāls
8 R. Reingolcs
29 K. Shigema
5 J. Toba
4 K. Anmanis
10 B. Samoilovs
19 D. Radzenieks
Coach · K. Dišlers
Substitutes
35 · martins velika
30 · M. Šusts
22 · E. Sprukts
7 · S. Shibata
28 · R. Meļķis
27 · R. Deružinskis
18 · D. Calbergs
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Rīgas FS
4-2-3-1
16 J. Ņerugals
11 R. Savaļnieks
23 H. Prenga
43 Ž. Lipušček
6 A. Filipović
26 S. Panić
66 M. Saidy
19 Alfa Baldé
10 J. Ikaunieks
8 L. Odisharia
15 R. Ndjiki
Coach · V. Morozs
Substitutes
5 · N. Sliede
21 · N. Dusalijevs
49 · M. Ķigurs
9 · Duje Korač
17 · C. Kouadio
99 · S. Kumater
22 · D. Lemajić
1 · R. Matrevics
30 · H. Njie
Tukums
5-3-2
12 A. Kuprins
16 Kristaps Klavins
6 K. Volkovs
25 H. Joksts
88 M. Štāls
8 R. Reingolcs
29 K. Shigema
5 J. Toba
4 K. Anmanis
10 B. Samoilovs
19 D. Radzenieks
Coach · K. Dišlers
Substitutes
35 · martins velika
30 · M. Šusts
22 · E. Sprukts
7 · S. Shibata
28 · R. Meļķis
27 · R. Deružinskis
18 · D. Calbergs
We make Rīgas FS an 87% chance to win. The market has them at 86%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 3.5–0.8.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 86%, 87% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 86% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rīgas FS win | 87% | 86% | +1 |
| Draw | 9% | 9% | 0 |
| Tukums win | 5% | 5% | 0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 75% | +5 |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 44% | +7 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 92% | 88% | +4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 62% | 57% | +5 |
| Rīgas FS or draw | 95% | 95% | 0 |
| Rīgas FS clean sheet | 47% | – | – |
| Tukums clean sheet | 3% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
Last 10 meetingsEvery competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Virsliga this season · since 21 Aug
RĪGAS FS
TUKUMS
The table
2026| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rīgas FS | 32 | +55 | 80 |
| 2 | Riga | 33 | +59 | 79 |
| 3 | Auda | 32 | +20 | 64 |
| 4 | FK Liepaja | 33 | 0 | 46 |
| 5 | BFC Daugavpils | 32 | +1 | 42 |
| 6 | Super Nova | 33 | −15 | 38 |
| 7 | FS Jelgava | 33 | −22 | 32 |
| 8 | Grobiņa | 33 | −31 | 29 |
| 9 | Tukums | 32 | −19 | 24 |
| 10 | Ogre United | 33 | −48 | 18 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Riga
Auda
FK Liepaja
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
FS Jelgava
Grobiņa
Ogre United