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Rīgas FS v Tukums

Rīgas FS
2–0Full time
Tukums

Virsliga · MON 19 OCT · Stadions Arkadija

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 20:00
Rīgas FS 2–0 Tukums RĪGAS FS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG3–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Rīgas FS win87%
The market said86%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.027
The market’s Brier score0.032

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay19 notes · 21 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Rīgas FS win at 87%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Rīgas FS 87% before kick-off, 87% now. 0–0 · 87–9–5
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Rīgas FS v Tukums
  4. 17′A goal for Rīgas FS on 17′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 94–4–1
  5. 17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Rīgas FS 1–0 Tukums
  6. 17′GOAL DISALLOWED · 17' Rīgas FS
  7. 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Rīgas FS win: 87% at kick-off, 77% now
  8. 38′We said Rīgas FS at 87%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 75%. 0–0 · 75–18–7
  9. 40′We said Rīgas FS at 87%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 74%. 0–0 · 74–19–7
  10. 45′Rīgas FS have had 7 attempts to 1 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 72–21–7
  11. 45′HALF-TIME Rīgas FS 0–0 Tukums
  12. 46′SECOND HALF Rīgas FS 0–0 Tukums
  13. 49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Rīgas FS · Rīgas FS
  14. 50′We said Rīgas FS at 87%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 68%. 0–0 · 68–24–8
  15. 52′Rīgas FS have had 9 attempts to 3 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 67–25–8
  16. 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Rīgas FS win: 87% at kick-off, 67% now
  17. 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 4.3 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 65–27–8
  18. 56′We said Rīgas FS at 87%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 64%. 0–0 · 64–28–8
  19. 59′12 shots for Rīgas FS, 3 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 61–31–8
  20. 61′We said Rīgas FS at 87%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 59%. 0–0 · 59–33–8
  21. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Rīgas FS · On: martins kigurs · Off: Rostand Ndjiki
  22. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Rīgas FS win: 87% at kick-off, 57% now
  23. 66′We said Rīgas FS at 87%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 54%. 0–0 · 54–38–8
  24. 68′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Darko Lemajić · Rīgas FS
  25. 70′We said Rīgas FS at 87%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–44–8
  26. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Rīgas FS win: 87% at kick-off, 47% now
  27. 72′Rīgas FS have had 17 attempts to 3 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 46–47–7
  28. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Tukums · On: rudolfs melkis · Off: Daniels radzenieks
  29. 73′We said Rīgas FS at 87%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–49–7
  30. 73′THE CALL SWINGS · 73' Draw is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Rīgas FS win 47%)
  31. 76′We said Rīgas FS at 87%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–55–7
  32. 77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Rīgas FS 1–0 Tukums
  33. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Rīgas FS win: 87% at kick-off, 94% now
  34. 77′THE CALL SWINGS · 77' Rīgas FS win is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Draw 55%)
  35. 79′martins kigurs scores for Rīgas FS on 76′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 94–6–0
  36. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Tukums · On: Shun Shibata · Off: Koyo Shigema
  37. 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Rīgas FS win: 87% at kick-off, 97% now
  38. 89′We said Rīgas FS at 87% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  39. 89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Rīgas FS 2–0 Tukums
  40. 90′88′: martins kigurs on the scoresheet for Rīgas FS, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  41. FTFULL TIME Rīgas FS 2–0 Tukums
  42. FTRīgas FS 2–0 Tukums · Rīgas FS win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 3–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Rīgas FS are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Rīgas FS 87%, draw 9%, Tukums 5%. Over 2.5 goals 80%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Rīgas FS v TukumsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Rīgas FS win87%
Draw9%
Tukums win5%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 33

VenueStadions Arkadija

Line-ups

Rīgas FS

4-2-3-1

Tukums

5-3-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rīgas FS

Tukums

4Days since last match9

Last match: 15 Oct · Virsliga

Last match: 10 Oct · Virsliga

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
1Rīgas FS32+5580
9Tukums32−1924

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Rīgas FS

4-2-3-1

16 J. Ņerugals

11 R. Savaļnieks

23 H. Prenga

43 Ž. Lipušček

6 A. Filipović

26 S. Panić

66 M. Saidy

19 Alfa Baldé

10 J. Ikaunieks

8 L. Odisharia

15 R. Ndjiki

Coach · V. Morozs

Substitutes

5 · N. Sliede

21 · N. Dusalijevs

49 · M. Ķigurs

9 · Duje Korač

17 · C. Kouadio

99 · S. Kumater

22 · D. Lemajić

1 · R. Matrevics

30 · H. Njie

Tukums

5-3-2

12 A. Kuprins

16 Kristaps Klavins

6 K. Volkovs

25 H. Joksts

88 M. Štāls

8 R. Reingolcs

29 K. Shigema

5 J. Toba

4 K. Anmanis

10 B. Samoilovs

19 D. Radzenieks

Coach · K. Dišlers

Substitutes

35 · martins velika

30 · M. Šusts

22 · E. Sprukts

7 · S. Shibata

28 · R. Meļķis

27 · R. Deružinskis

18 · D. Calbergs

Our number · rīgas fs winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · updated 16 Oct 00:09 · locked at kick-off
87% The market86%
Us87%
Market86%

We make Rīgas FS an 87% chance to win. The market has them at 86%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 3.5–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Rīgas FS v Tukums3.54 – 0.76
Form · last six in Virsliga this season · since 21 AugW4 D2 L0 · W1 D1 L4
Table places · points 80 v 241 v 9
The market · Rīgas FS win86% · ours 87%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
80%85%90% 13 OCT 05:4119 OCT 16:40
Our probability · Rīgas FS win The market, margin stripped

Published at 86%, 87% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 86% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Rīgas FS win87%86%+1
Draw9%9%0
Tukums win5%5%0
Over 2.5 goals80%75%+5
Both teams to score51%44%+7
Over 1.5 goals92%88%+4
Over 3.5 goals62%57%+5
Rīgas FS or draw95%95%0
Rīgas FS clean sheet47%––
Tukums clean sheet3%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–0 at 9.9%
0123450 1 5.0 3.8 2 8.6 6.4 2.5 3 9.9 7.4 2.8 4 8.7 6.5 2.5 5 6.2 4.6
under 2% 5% 12%+Rīgas FS down, Tukums across0–5 goals a side shown (84.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting4.20
Over 2.57 of 10
Both scored7 of 10
Last meetingsTUK 0–1 RIG · RIG 3–1 TUK · TUK 1–2 RIG · TUK 2–4 RIG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Virsliga this season · since 21 Aug

RĪGAS FS

WDWDWW3–0 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 4–2 · 4–0

TUKUMS

LLWLDL0–3 · 1–4 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–2

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Rīgas FS32+5580
2Riga33+5979
3Auda32+2064
4FK Liepaja33046
5BFC Daugavpils32+142
6Super Nova33−1538
7FS Jelgava33−2232
8Grobiņa33−3129
9Tukums32−1924
10Ogre United33−4818

The competition's standings before kick-off.