Rīgas FS v Super Nova prediction · Virsliga

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 17:30

Rīgas FS 4–0 Super Nova RĪGAS FS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Rīgas FS win~~81%

~~The market said~~82%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.054

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.050

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Rīgas FS win at 81%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Rīgas FS 81% before kick-off, 82% now. 0–0 · 82–12–6
1′KICK-OFF Rīgas FS v Super Nova
9′9′: Z. Lipuscek on the scoresheet for Rīgas FS, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 94–5–1
9′⚽ GOAL · 9' Rīgas FS 1–0 Super Nova · Z. Lipuscek
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 9' Rīgas FS win: 81% at kick-off, 94% now
10′We said Rīgas FS at 81% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 1–0 · 93–5–1
12′Rīgas FS ahead on 12′ through A. Balde. 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Rīgas FS 2–0 Super Nova · A. Balde
13′We said Rīgas FS at 81% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
29′SUBSTITUTION · 29' Rīgas FS · On: R. Savalnieks · Off: D. Zelenkovs
42′The goal count is tracking the 3.4 we expected. 2–0 · 99–1–0
45′HALF-TIME Rīgas FS 3–0 Super Nova
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' R. Kirss · Super Nova
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Rīgas FS · On: S. Kumater · Off: H. Prenga
46′SECOND HALF Rīgas FS 3–0 Super Nova
47′J. Ikaunieks scores for Rīgas FS on 45′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
47′⚽ GOAL · 45+3' Rīgas FS 3–0 Super Nova · J. Ikaunieks
48′We said Rīgas FS at 81% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Super Nova · On: A. Glaudans · Off: J. Cirulis
52′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Super Nova · On: R. Iida · Off: R. Kirss
54′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Super Nova · On: R. Iida · Off: R. Kirss Corrected
57′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Rīgas FS · On: M. Kigurs · Off: L. Odisharia
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Super Nova · On: K. Augusts · Off: Bamba
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Super Nova · On: E. Emsis · Off: I. Patrikejevs
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Rīgas FS · On: R. Ndjiki · Off: D. Lemajic Corrected
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Rīgas FS · On: D. Korac · Off: A. Balde
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Super Nova · On: A. Baghdasaryan · Off: R. Sitjakovs
79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' S. Kumater · Rīgas FS
86′86′: D. Korac on the scoresheet for Rīgas FS, making it 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
86′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.4 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Rīgas FS 4–0 Super Nova · D. Korac (penalty)
FTFULL TIME Rīgas FS 4–0 Super Nova
FTRīgas FS 4–0 Super Nova · Rīgas FS win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Rīgas FS are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Rīgas FS 81%, draw 12%, Super Nova 6%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Rīgas FS v Super NovaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

Rīgas FS win81%

Draw12%

Super Nova win6%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 25

VenueLNK Sporta Parks

Line-ups

Rīgas FS

4-2-3-1

Super Nova

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rīgas FS

Super Nova

4Days since last match5

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Rīgas FS

4-2-3-1

16 Jevgēņijs Ņerugals

6 Aleksandar Filipović

23 Herdi Prenga

43 Žiga Lipušček

18 Dmitrijs Zelenkovs

66 Modou Saidy

26 Stefan Panić

19 Alfa Baldé

10 Jānis Ikaunieks

8 Lasha Odisharia

22 Darko Lemajić

Coach · –

Substitutes

11 · Roberts Savaļnieks

99 · Shina Kumater

49 · Mārtiņš Ķigurs

17 · Cedric Kouadio

9 · Duje Korač

1 · Rihards Matrevics

30 · Haruna Njie

5 · Niks Sliede

15 · Rostand Ndjiki

Super Nova

4-4-2

90 Davis Veisbuks

21 Milans Tihonovics

20 Ibrahima Diop

16 Kristaps Romanovs

5 Jegors Cirulis

15 Raivis Kirss

8 Ivans Patrikejevs

24 Ralfs Šitjakovs

9 Samate Amadou

27 Ndiaye Pathé

22 Kristers Skadmanis

Coach · –

Substitutes

3 · Rikuto Iida

7 · Agris Glaudans

2 · Kristers Augusts

6 · Eduards Emsis

29 · Aram Baghdasaryan

31 · Toms Petrovics

18 · Mikus Vasilevskis

Our number · rīgas fs winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

81% The market82%

Us81%

~~Market~~82%

We make Rīgas FS a 81% chance to win. The market has them at 82%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.8–0.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Rīgas FS v Super Nova~~2.80 – 0.64

~~Form · last six in Virsliga this season · since 23 Aug~~W3 D3 L0 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 77 v 38~~1 v 6

~~The market · Rīgas FS win~~82% · ours 81%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Rīgas FS win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 82% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rīgas FS win	81%	82%	−1
Draw	12%	12%	0
Super Nova win	6%	6%	0
Over 2.5 goals	66%	66%	0
Both teams to score	44%	40%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	85%	83%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	45%	46%	−1
Rīgas FS or draw	94%	94%	0
Rīgas FS clean sheet	53%	–	–
Super Nova clean sheet	6%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 12.4%

0123450 3.4 2.1 1 9.0 5.9 2 12.4 7.9 2.6 3 11.5 7.3 2.4 4 8.1 5.1 5 4.6 2.9

under 2% 5% 12%+Rīgas FS down, Super Nova across0–5 goals a side shown (93.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 998 Virsliga matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Virsliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.5% of games this season, across 159 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.70 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rīgas FS at home: 2.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Super Nova away: 0.83 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.80 goals for Rīgas FS, 0.64 for Super Nova. Most likely score 2–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 15 Oct 14:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.70

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SUP 0–1 RIG · SUP 1–2 RIG · RIG 2–0 SUP · SUP 1–3 RIG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Virsliga this season · since 23 Aug

RĪGAS FS

DWDWDW3–3 · 3–0 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 4–2

SUPER NOVA

DWWLLW1–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rīgas FS	31	+51	77
2	Riga	32	+58	76
3	Auda	32	+20	64
4	FK Liepaja	32	−3	43
5	BFC Daugavpils	32	+1	42
6	Super Nova	31	−10	38
7	FS Jelgava	32	−19	32
8	Grobiņa	32	−32	26
9	Tukums	32	−19	24
10	Ogre United	32	−47	18