Rīgas FS v FS Jelgava prediction · Virsliga

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Rīgas FS 4–2 FS Jelgava RĪGAS FS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Rīgas FS win~~81%

~~The market said~~82%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.056

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.052

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Rīgas FS win at 81%.
1′KICK-OFF Rīgas FS v FS Jelgava
3′Much as we predicted: Rīgas FS was 81% before kick-off and our model makes it 81% now. 0–0 · 81–13–6
4′Much as we predicted: Rīgas FS was 81% before kick-off and our model makes it 81% now. 0–0 · 81–13–6
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Rīgas FS 0–1 FS Jelgava · F. Hasek
34′🟨 YELLOW · 33' G. Zaleiko · FS Jelgava
41′F. Hasek scores for FS Jelgava on 28′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 37–30–33
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Rīgas FS win: 81% at kick-off, 37% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Rīgas FS win: 81% at kick-off, 74% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Rīgas FS win: 81% at kick-off, 37% now
43′F. Hasek scores for FS Jelgava on 28′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 35–31–34
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Rīgas FS win: 81% at kick-off, 37% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Rīgas FS win: 81% at kick-off, 74% now
45′🟨 YELLOW · 48' G. Patika · FS Jelgava
45′HALF-TIME Rīgas FS 0–1 FS Jelgava
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Rīgas FS win: 81% at kick-off, 35% now
46′SECOND HALF Rīgas FS 0–1 FS Jelgava
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Rīgas FS 0–2 FS Jelgava · F. Hasek
48′⚽ GOAL · 47' Rīgas FS 0–2 FS Jelgava · F. Hasek
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Rīgas FS 1–2 FS Jelgava · D. Lemajic
59′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Rīgas FS · On: M. Kigurs · Off: M. Saidy
62′🟨 YELLOW · 62' A. Kangars · FS Jelgava
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Rīgas FS 2–2 FS Jelgava · S. Panic
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Rīgas FS 3–2 FS Jelgava · D. Lemajic
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' FS Jelgava · On: A. Deklavs · Off: G. Patika
75′🟨 YELLOW · 74' A. Filipovic · Rīgas FS
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' FS Jelgava · On: R. Melkis · Off: R. Becers
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' FS Jelgava · On: M. Pudil · Off: E. Smaukstelis
82′⚽ GOAL · 81' Rīgas FS 4–2 FS Jelgava · R. Ndjiki
84′🟨 YELLOW · 84' S. Panic · Rīgas FS
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Rīgas FS · On: A. Balde · Off: L. Odisharia
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' FS Jelgava · On: K. Bernans · Off: G. Zaleiko
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' FS Jelgava · On: G. Kacanovs · Off: K. Alekseiciks
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Rīgas FS · On: N. Dusalijevs · Off: J. Ikaunieks
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Rīgas FS · On: D. Korac · Off: R. Ndjiki
FTFULL TIME Rīgas FS 4–2 FS Jelgava
FTRīgas FS 4–2 FS Jelgava · Rīgas FS win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Rīgas FS win81%

Draw13%

FS Jelgava win6%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

VenueBislett Stadium

Line-ups

Rīgas FS

FS Jelgava

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Rīgas FS

FS Jelgava

21Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Rīgas FS	30	+49	74
7	FS Jelgava	31	−17	32

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Rīgas FS

Formation not confirmed

16 J. Nerugals

6 A. Filipovic

23 H. Prenga

43 Z. Lipuscek

18 D. Zelenkovs

66 M. Saidy

26 S. Panic

8 L. Odisharia

17 A. Kouadio

10 J. Ikaunieks

15 R. Ndjiki

Coach · Viktors Morozs

Substitutes

1 · R. Matrevics

21 · N. Dusalijevs

5 · N. Sliede

49 · M. Kigurs

81 · S. Rakic

99 · S. Kumater

22 · D. Lemajic

19 · A. Balde

9 · D. Korac

FS Jelgava

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Dvorak

19 A. Petersons

4 A. Kangars

27 K. Alekseiciks

23 A. Dreimanis

24 F. Hasek

29 G. Zaleiko

11 M. Hasek

18 E. Smaukstelis

9 R. Becers

20 G. Patika

Coach · Aleksandrs Basovs

Substitutes

16 · T. Leitis

21 · G. Kacanovs

22 · M. Pudil

28 · A. Deklavs

2 · K. Bernans

7 · A. Janovskis

17 · T. Rataj

8 · R. Melkis

Our number · rīgas fs winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

81% The market82%

Us81%

~~Market~~82%

We make Rīgas FS a 81% chance to win. The market has them at 82%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.8–0.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · rīgas fs win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 76% to 82% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rīgas FS win	81%	82%	−1
Draw	13%	12%	0
FS Jelgava win	6%	6%	0
Over 2.5 goals	66%	67%	−1
Both teams to score	44%	42%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	85%	84%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	45%	48%	−3
Rīgas FS or draw	94%	94%	0
Rīgas FS clean sheet	53%	–	–
FS Jelgava clean sheet	7%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 12.5%

0123450 3.5 2.1 1 9.1 5.9 2 12.5 8.0 2.6 3 11.4 7.3 2.4 4 8.0 5.1 5 4.5 2.9

under 2% 5% 12%+Rīgas FS down, FS Jelgava across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 995 Virsliga matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Virsliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.6% of games this season, across 156 played.

Head to head

15 previous meetings, 2.87 goals a meeting; 7 of 15 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rīgas FS at home: 3.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). FS Jelgava away: 2.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.78 goals for Rīgas FS, 0.65 for FS Jelgava. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

15 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.87

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 15

~~Both scored~~4 of 15

~~Last meetings~~FSJ 0–1 RIG · RIG 4–0 FSJ · FSJ 0–1 RIG · RIG 1–4 FSJ

Form · last six in Virsliga

RĪGAS FS

WDWDWD6–1 · 3–3 · 3–0 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 1–1

FS JELGAVA

LWWLDL0–1 · 3–2 · 4–1 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Riga	32	+58	76
2	Rīgas FS	30	+49	74
3	Auda	31	+19	61
4	FK Liepaja	31	−2	43
5	BFC Daugavpils	31	0	39
6	Super Nova	31	−10	38
7	FS Jelgava	31	−17	32
8	Grobiņa	32	−32	26
9	Tukums	32	−19	24
10	Ogre United	31	−46	18