Riga v Super Nova prediction · Virsliga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43

Riga 2–1 Super Nova RIGA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Riga win~~82%

~~The market said~~84%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.049

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.039

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 35 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Riga win at 82%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Riga 82% before kick-off, 82% now. 0–0 · 82–12–6
1′KICK-OFF Riga v Super Nova
22′We said Riga at 82%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 51%. 0–1 · 51–25–24
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Riga 0–1 Super Nova
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Riga win: 82% at kick-off, 51% now
23′Super Nova ahead on 23′ through R. Kirss. 0–1. 0–1 · 50–25–24
24′Super Nova ahead on 22′ through R. Kirss. 0–1. 0–1 · 50–26–25
25′We said Riga at 82%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 0–1 · 49–26–25
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.4 we expected. 0–1 · 46–27–27
32′We said Riga at 82%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 0–1 · 44–28–28
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Riga win: 82% at kick-off, 42% now
39′We said Riga at 82%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–1 · 39–30–31
45′We said Riga at 82%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–1 · 34–31–35
45′HALF-TIME Riga 0–1 Super Nova
45′SECOND HALF Riga 0–1 Super Nova
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Riga win: 82% at kick-off, 32% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Super Nova win is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Riga win 32%)
49′🟨 YELLOW · 48' R. Aouani · Riga
49′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Reginaldo Ramires · Riga
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Riga · On: A. Taiwo · Off: Abner Corrected
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Riga · On: M. Diop · Off: S. L. Robalo Pedro Corrected
51′We said Riga at 82%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–1 · 29–32–39
53′🟨 YELLOW · 53' R. Kirss · Super Nova
55′🟨 YELLOW · 55' V. Lizunovs · Super Nova
56′We said Riga at 82%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–33–43
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Riga win: 82% at kick-off, 22% now
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Super Nova · On: A. Glaudans · Off: R. Kirss Corrected
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Super Nova · On: I. Ndiaye · Off: Bamba Corrected
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Riga · On: M. Badamosi · Off: Reginaldo Ramires Corrected
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Riga · On: R. Jurkovskis · Off: M. Tonisevs Corrected
62′We said Riga at 82%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–33–48
63′🟨 YELLOW · 63' I. Patrikejevs · Super Nova
67′We said Riga at 82%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–32–54
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Riga 1–1 Super Nova
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Riga win: 82% at kick-off, 45% now
69′Iago Siqueira scores for Riga on 68′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 43–50–7
69′THE CALL SWINGS · 69' Draw is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Super Nova win 7%)
71′🟨 YELLOW · 71' I. Ndiaye · Super Nova
75′M. Badamosi scores for Riga on 75′. 1–1 · 34–60–6
75′We said Riga at 82% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 2–1 · 94–6–0
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Riga 2–1 Super Nova · M. Badamosi
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Riga win: 82% at kick-off, 94% now
75′THE CALL SWINGS · 75' Riga win is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Draw 6%)
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Riga win: 82% at kick-off, 94% now
78′We said Riga at 82% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Super Nova · On: M. Tihonovics · Off: K. Romanovs Corrected
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Super Nova · On: N. Pathe · Off: E. Emsis Corrected
88′🟨 YELLOW · 87' M. Oss · Super Nova
88′🟨 YELLOW · 87' J. Cirulis · Super Nova
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Super Nova · On: K. Skadmanis · Off: I. Patrikejevs Corrected
90′2–1 at the end. Our 82% on Riga comes in. 2–1 · 100–0–0
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Riga · On: B. Musah · Off: C. Saco Corrected
FTFULL TIME Riga 2–1 Super Nova
FTRiga 2–1 Super Nova · Riga win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Riga are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Riga 82%, draw 12%, Super Nova 6%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Riga v Super NovaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Riga win82%

Draw12%

Super Nova win6%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 33

VenueSkonto stadions

Line-ups

Riga

4-2-3-1

Super Nova

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Riga

Super Nova

3Days since last match3

Last match: 15 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference League

Last match: 15 Oct · Virsliga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Riga	32	+58	76
6	Super Nova	32	−14	38

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Riga

4-2-3-1

91 Frenks Orols

23 Maksims Tonisevs

34 Antonijs Černomordijs

3 Abner

17 Andrés Salazar

6 Coli Saco

5 Karl Gameni Wassom

7 Raki Aouani

8 Iago Siqueira Augusto

15 Samuel Pedro

10 Reginaldo Ramires

Coach · –

Substitutes

22 · Meïssa Diop

25 · Abdulrahman Taiwo

13 · Raivis Jurkovskis

19 · Muhammed Badamosi

21 · Baba Musah

12 · Kenan Pirić

60 · Emmanuel Maviram

29 · Eriks Maurs-Boks

28 · Abdu Mandeke

Super Nova

4-4-2

90 Davis Veisbuks

5 Jegors Cirulis

25 Mārcis Ošs

16 Kristaps Romanovs

3 Rikuto Iida

15 Raivis Kirss

8 Ivans Patrikejevs

24 Ralfs Šitjakovs

9 Samate Amadou

10 Valerijs Lizunovs

6 Eduards Emsis

Coach · –

Substitutes

20 · Ibrahima Diop

7 · Agris Glaudans

21 · Milans Tihonovics

27 · Ndiaye Pathé

22 · Kristers Skadmanis

31 · Toms Petrovics

18 · Mikus Vasilevskis

2 · Kristers Augusts

29 · Aram Baghdasaryan

Our number · riga winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 16 Oct 00:09 · locked at kick-off

82% The market84%

Us82%

~~Market~~84%

We make Riga an 82% chance to win. The market has them at 84%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.8–0.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Riga v Super Nova~~2.80 – 0.60

~~Form · last six in Virsliga this season · since 31 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 76 v 38~~2 v 6

~~The market · Riga win~~84% · ours 82%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Riga win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 84% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Riga win	82%	84%	−2
Draw	12%	11%	+1
Super Nova win	6%	5%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	66%	70%	−4
Both teams to score	42%	43%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	85%	87%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	44%	51%	−7
Riga or draw	94%	95%	−1
Riga clean sheet	55%	–	–
Super Nova clean sheet	6%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 13.1%

0123450 3.6 2.0 1 9.5 5.7 2 13.1 7.7 2.3 3 12.1 7.1 2.2 4 8.5 5.0 5 4.8 2.8

under 2% 5% 12%+Riga down, Super Nova across0–5 goals a side shown (93.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,000 Virsliga matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Virsliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.0% of games this season, across 161 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 4.10 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Riga at home: 2.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Super Nova away: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.80 goals for Riga, 0.60 for Super Nova. Most likely score 2–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 13:34. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~4.10

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SUP 0–1 RIG · RIG 3–0 SUP · SUP 1–4 RIG · SUP 2–6 RIG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Virsliga this season · since 31 Aug

RIGA

LDDWWW2–3 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 2–0

SUPER NOVA

WWLLWL1–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 0–4

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rīgas FS	32	+55	80
2	Riga	32	+58	76
3	Auda	32	+20	64
4	FK Liepaja	32	−3	43
5	BFC Daugavpils	32	+1	42
6	Super Nova	32	−14	38
7	FS Jelgava	32	−19	32
8	Grobiņa	33	−31	29
9	Tukums	32	−19	24
10	Ogre United	33	−48	18