Ogre United v BFC Daugavpils prediction · Virsliga

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 14:34

Ogre United 1–2 BFC Daugavpils BFC DAUGAVPILS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said BFC Daugavpils win~~50%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.373

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.327

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said BFC Daugavpils win at 50%.
1′KICK-OFF Ogre United v BFC Daugavpils
2′Little has changed for our model: BFC Daugavpils 50% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 26–24–50
3′🟨 YELLOW · 3' E. Ivanovs · BFC Daugavpils
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Ogre United 0–1 BFC Daugavpils
23′⚽ GOAL · 24' Ogre United 0–1 BFC Daugavpils · A. Traore
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Ogre United 1–1 BFC Daugavpils · A. Traore
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Ogre United 1–1 BFC Daugavpils · J. Fokam
39′J. Fokam scores for Ogre United on 31′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 24–35–42
40′J. Fokam scores for Ogre United on 31′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 24–35–41
45′HALF-TIME Ogre United 1–1 BFC Daugavpils
45′SECOND HALF Ogre United 1–1 BFC Daugavpils
49′SECOND HALF Ogre United 1–1 BFC Daugavpils
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Ogre United 1–2 BFC Daugavpils · J. Fokam
57′🟨 YELLOW · 55' A. Doroshenko · Ogre United
57′⚽ GOAL · 58' Ogre United 1–2 BFC Daugavpils · A. Traore
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Ogre United · On: M. Pacepko · Off: J. Fokam
63′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Ogre United · On: T. Marusiy · Off: A. Doroshenko
67′SUBSTITUTION · 68' BFC Daugavpils · On: Z. Ouled-Haj-M'hand · Off: W. Mukwelle
67′🟨 YELLOW · 68' R. Skrebels · BFC Daugavpils
73′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Ogre United · On: A. Marchuk · Off: I. Pulis
84′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Ogre United · On: R. Ziemelis · Off: A. Kudelkins
84′SUBSTITUTION · 85' BFC Daugavpils · On: D. Ayebadiepreye · Off: D. Kivinda
84′🟨 YELLOW · 85' A. Molotkovs · Ogre United
84′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Ogre United · On: M. Ivulans · Off: L. Estevez Fernandez
FTFULL TIME Ogre United 1–2 BFC Daugavpils
FTOgre United 1–2 BFC Daugavpils · BFC Daugavpils win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Ogre United win26%

Draw24%

BFC Daugavpils win50%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 12:00

Line-ups

Ogre United

4-2-3-1

BFC Daugavpils

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Ogre United

BFC Daugavpils

21Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	BFC Daugavpils	31	0	39
10	Ogre United	31	−46	18

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Ogre United

4-2-3-1

1 Nikita Parfjonovs

5 Rendijs Sibass

13 Krists Gulbis

55 Aleksejs Kudeļkins

27 Aleksandrs Molotkovs

19 Kristers Cudars

30 Arsentiy Doroshenko

22 Leif Estevez Fernandez

7 Ingars Pulis

10 Markuss Kalnins

9 Jacques Fokam-Sandeu

Coach · –

Substitutes

3 · Tymofiy Marusiy

11 · Marks Pacepko

71 · Artem Marchuk

2 · Rudolfs Ziemelis

21 · Markuss Ivulans

20 · Janis Kristers Biscuhis

6 · Dāvis Vējkrīgers

17 · Vadim Mashchenko

18 · Emils Evelons

BFC Daugavpils

4-2-3-1

12 Janis Beks

8 Raivis Skrebels

5 Papa Omar Gningue

20 Ceti Tchibinda

37 Glebs Mihalcovs

10 Edgars Ivanovs

4 William Eseme Mukwelle

11 Joel Yakubu

19 Ervīns Piņaskins

9 Abdoul Kader Traore

97 Daniel Kivinda

Coach · Kirils Kurbatov

Substitutes

34 · Ziad Ouled-Haj-M'hand

3 · Doukumo Wadulu Ayebadiepreye

1 · Jurijs Saveļjevs

66 · Kirils Bujanovs

77 · Rinalds Aizups

27 · Maksims Kopilovs

6 · Ņikita Barkovskis

Our number · bfc daugavpils winPublished 11 Oct 12:12

50% The market53%

Us50%

~~Market~~53%

We make BFC Daugavpils a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · bfc daugavpils win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 49% to 53% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ogre United win	26%	23%	+3
Draw	24%	24%	0
BFC Daugavpils win	50%	53%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	54%	62%	−8
Both teams to score	55%	61%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	77%	81%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	32%	41%	−9
Ogre United or draw	50%	47%	+3
Ogre United clean sheet	19%	–	–
BFC Daugavpils clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 6.2 9.8 8.4 4.8 2.1 1 6.6 11.3 9.3 5.3 2.3 2 3.9 6.4 5.3 3.0 3 2.5 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ogre United down, BFC Daugavpils across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 995 Virsliga matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Virsliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.6% of games this season, across 156 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 3.67 goals a meeting; 3 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ogre United at home: 1.33 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). BFC Daugavpils away: 0.83 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.14 goals for Ogre United, 1.70 for BFC Daugavpils. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~3.67

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~OGR 0–4 BFC · BFC 3–1 OGR · BFC 2–1 OGR

Form · last six in Virsliga

OGRE UNITED

LLLDLW2–3 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 1–0

BFC DAUGAVPILS

WDLDLD2–0 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Riga	32	+58	76
2	Rīgas FS	30	+49	74
3	Auda	31	+19	61
4	FK Liepaja	31	−2	43
5	BFC Daugavpils	31	0	39
6	Super Nova	31	−10	38
7	FS Jelgava	31	−17	32
8	Grobiņa	32	−32	26
9	Tukums	32	−19	24
10	Ogre United	31	−46	18