Ogre United v Auda prediction · Virsliga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Ogre UnitedDrawAuda

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Auda 61%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Auda are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ogre United 18%, draw 21%, Auda 61%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Ogre United v AudaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Ogre United win18%

Draw21%

Auda win61%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 34

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ogre United

Auda

8Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Virsliga

Last match: 19 Oct · Virsliga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Auda	33	+19	64
10	Ogre United	33	−48	18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · auda winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

61% The market59%

Us61%

~~Market~~59%

We make Auda a 61% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.0–2.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ogre United v Auda~~0.97 – 2.02

~~Form · last six in Virsliga this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 18 v 64~~10 v 3

~~The market · Auda win~~59% · ours 61%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Auda win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 59% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ogre United win	18%	20%	−2
Draw	21%	21%	0
Auda win	61%	59%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	57%	64%	−7
Both teams to score	53%	61%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	80%	83%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	35%	43%	−8
Ogre United or draw	39%	41%	−2
Ogre United clean sheet	14%	–	–
Auda clean sheet	38%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 10.2%

0123450 5.4 10.0 10.2 6.9 3.5 1 4.8 9.9 9.6 6.4 3.3 2 2.5 4.8 4.7 3.1 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ogre United down, Auda across0–5 goals a side shown (97.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,005 Virsliga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Virsliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.2% of games this season, across 166 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 1.67 goals a meeting; 0 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ogre United at home: 1.00 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Auda away: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.97 goals for Ogre United, 2.02 for Auda. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~1.67

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~AUD 1–0 OGR · AUD 2–0 OGR · OGR 1–1 AUD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Virsliga this season · since 5 Sept

OGRE UNITED

LDLWLL1–2 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 2–3

AUDA

WDWDWL1–0 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rīgas FS	33	+57	83
2	Riga	33	+59	79
3	Auda	33	+19	64
4	FK Liepaja	34	0	47
5	BFC Daugavpils	33	+2	45
6	Super Nova	33	−15	38
7	FS Jelgava	33	−22	32
8	Grobiņa	33	−31	29
9	Tukums	34	−21	25
10	Ogre United	33	−48	18